By Eric L. Piza, David N. Hatten, Jeremy G. Carter, Jonas H. Baughman, George O. Mohler

Gunshot Detection Technology (GDT) is expected to impact gun violence by accelerating the discovery and response to gunfire. GDT should further collect more accurate spatial data, as gunfire is assigned to coordinates measured by acoustic sensors rather than addresses reported via 9-1-1 calls for service (CFS). The current study explores the level to which GDT achieves these benefits over its first five years of operation in Kansas City, Missouri. Data systems are triangulated to determine the time and location gunfire was reported by GDT and CFS. The temporal and spatial distances between GDT and CFS are then calculated. Findings indicate GDT generates time savings and increases spatial precision as compared to CFS. This may facilitate police responses to gunfire events and provide more spatially accurate data to inform policing strategies. Results of generalized linear and multinomial logistic regression models indicate that GDT benefits are influenced by a number of situational factors.

Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice. https://doi.org/10.1093/police/paac097 , 2023 38p.

By Sonia L. Robinson, Christopher D. McCort, Colette Smirniotis, Garen J. Wintemute & Hannah S. Laqueur

Background

Firearm violence is a major cause of death and injury in the United States. Tracking the movement of firearms from legal purchase to use in crimes can help inform prevention of firearm injuries and deaths. The last state-wide studies analyzing crime gun recoveries used data from over 20 years ago; thus, an update is needed.

Methods

We used data for 5,247,348 handgun and 2,868,713 long gun transactions and law enforcement recoveries from California crime gun recovery (2010–2021) and California’s Dealer Records of Sales records. Covariates included characteristics of dealership sales, firearms and their transactions, and purchaser’s demographic characteristics, purchasing history, criminal history (from firearm purchaser criminal history records), and neighborhood socioeconomic status. Analyses for handguns and long guns was conducted separately. In multivariable analysis, we included correlates into a Cox proportional hazard model accounting for left truncation and clustering between the same firearm, purchaser, dealerships, and geographic location. Covariates that remained significant (P < 0.05) were retained. For handguns, we evaluated associations of violent and weapons crimes separately. In supplementary analyses, we examined interactions by purchasers’ race and ethnicity.

Results

In total, 38,441 handguns (0.80%) and 6,806 long guns (0.24%) were recovered in crimes. A firearm dealer’s sales volume, percent of transactions that were denials, pawns, pawn redemptions, and firearms that became crime guns were each positively associated with firearm recovery in crime. Handguns that were inexpensive, larger caliber, and that had been reported lost or stolen were positively associated with recovery in crimes. Purchaser characteristics associated with crime gun recovery included: being younger, female, Black, Hispanic, Native American or Pacific Islander, or other race/ethnicity (vs white), having previous arrests, living in close proximity to the firearm dealership, and living in a more socially vulnerable census tract. Associations with race and ethnicity were modified by previous infraction-only arrests.

Conclusions

This study confirms that many previously studied correlates of firearm recovery are still relevant today. We were able to expand on previous research by examining novel associations including purchasers’ criminal history and previous firearm transaction history. These results provide evidence that can be used to disrupt firearm use in crimes.

Injury Epidemiology volume 11, Article number: 8 (2024)

By Pilar Kelly,  Angie Weis Gammell, Lindsay Bass-Patel

  In July 2023, the Wilson Center conducted nine focus groups and two individual interviews, with a total of 30 participants who live in the ShotSpotter pilot area in Durham, North Carolina. Participants were asked to discuss their perceptions of safety, gun violence, policing in their neighborhoods, ShotSpotter technology, and changes in policing or violence since the ShotSpotter pilot began. Participants had not observed any impact on gun crime since ShotSpotter was implemented, nor did they believe ShotSpotter could help to reduce gun crime. No resident identified any negative change in police activity or tactics since ShotSpotter was implemented. The participants who reported seeing changes in policing since ShotSpotter described those changes in a positive light. For participants who expressed opposition to having ShotSpotter in their neighborhoods, their opposition was rooted primarily in a lack of trust rather than direct experiences. This mistrust was directed toward City Council, ShotSpotter as a corporation, policing as an institution, and concerns about technology storing sensitive data. The majority of participants who spoke about the cost of ShotSpotter expressed negative views and suggested that the money would be better spent on other initiatives. Additionally, some residents felt unheard in the decision-making process to pilot ShotSpotter, which contributed to negative feelings about both the technology and City Council. Still, participants expressed hopes that ShotSpotter may lead to faster response times and more direct communication between residents and police, both of which they believe may work to enhance community members trust in police officers. Regarding whether ShotSpotter should continue in their community, two participants expressed strong support for continuing the ShotSpotter program, eight participants expressed strong opposition, and ten participants expressed conditional responses or uncertainty. For example, some participants would support the program if there were data that demonstrated ShotSpotter was impactful and effective.   

Durham, NC: Wilson Center for Science and Justice, at Duke Law School, 2024. 32p.

By Philip J. Cook and Adam Soliman

The City of Durham contracted with SoundThinking for a 12-month pilot program with ShotSpotter, a gunfire detection system. The system was installed in a three square-mile area of Durham that was selected based on having a relatively high rate of gun violence. The pilot operated from December 15, 2022 through December 14, 2023. This evaluation offers information on both the costs and the relevant impacts of the ShotSpotter pilot installation, but it does not offer a suggestion on whether the City should use ShotSpotter in the future. It is intended to inform the decision-makers, but not to advise them. Notifications and Deployments The ShotSpotter (SS) installation operated as a supplement to the 911 system, whereby residents are encouraged to contact the Durham Police Department (DPD) if they hear or witness a shooting. During the pilot period, DPD received 1,447 notifications of gunfire in the target area in which ShotSpotter was installed: 57% of these were SS alerts with no 911 call, 28% were 911 calls with no SS alert, and 15% had both 911 and SS notifications. Thus SS more than doubled the number of gunshot notifications compared with what DPD would have received (from 911) in its absence. DPD implemented a response protocol for the entire city on December 15, 2022 that any gunshot notification would be treated as a Priority 2 incident, requiring the immediate deployment of two patrol cars to the scene without sirens and flashers. In the target area, the effect of the “extra” SS alerts was to add an average of 2.3 Priority 2 deployments daily to the target area, approximately a 2% increase citywide. The SS installation was designed to detect gunfire that occurred outdoors, with a few exceptions (such as if the firearm was equipped with a silencer). For the 52 known gunshot incidents during the pilot period in which victims were wounded or killed, SS alerts were published for 26 and 911 calls received for 50 of these 52. Eight of the incidents (accounting for 14 gunshot victims) that were missed by SS were due to system failure or human error. In addition to these false negatives, there were likely some false positives, but we have no way to estimate how frequent. SS alerts include information on the time and precise location of the incident, and the number of shots fired. They were transmitted directly to DPD’s CAD system in each patrol car, almost always within 60 seconds. For incidents in which there is both a SS alert and a 911 call, the SS alert typically was first, and often provided a more precise location. Our analysis finds that in 2023, the median response time (from alert to arrival at the scene) was 5.5 minutes, which reflected a decline by 1.2 minutes in the target area compared with the rest of the city. There was a still greater improvement in the 90th percentile of response times, which declined by 3.6 minutes. In sum, SS had the effect of more than doubling the number of gunshot notifications received by DPD for the target area, and notably improving response times by patrol officers. 

Durham, NC: Wilson Center for Science and Justice, at Duke Law School, 2024. 39p.   

By Sonia L. Robinson, Christopher D. McCort, Colette Smirniotis, Garen J. Wintemute & Hannah S. Laqueur 

Background

Firearm violence is a major cause of death and injury in the United States. Tracking the movement of firearms from legal purchase to use in crimes can help inform prevention of firearm injuries and deaths. The last state-wide studies analyzing crime gun recoveries used data from over 20 years ago; thus, an update is needed.

Methods

We used data for 5,247,348 handgun and 2,868,713 long gun transactions and law enforcement recoveries from California crime gun recovery (2010–2021) and California’s Dealer Records of Sales records. Covariates included characteristics of dealership sales, firearms and their transactions, and purchaser’s demographic characteristics, purchasing history, criminal history (from firearm purchaser criminal history records), and neighborhood socioeconomic status. Analyses for handguns and long guns was conducted separately. In multivariable analysis, we included correlates into a Cox proportional hazard model accounting for left truncation and clustering between the same firearm, purchaser, dealerships, and geographic location. Covariates that remained significant (P < 0.05) were retained. For handguns, we evaluated associations of violent and weapons crimes separately. In supplementary analyses, we examined interactions by purchasers’ race and ethnicity.

Results

In total, 38,441 handguns (0.80%) and 6,806 long guns (0.24%) were recovered in crimes. A firearm dealer’s sales volume, percent of transactions that were denials, pawns, pawn redemptions, and firearms that became crime guns were each positively associated with firearm recovery in crime. Handguns that were inexpensive, larger caliber, and that had been reported lost or stolen were positively associated with recovery in crimes. Purchaser characteristics associated with crime gun recovery included: being younger, female, Black, Hispanic, Native American or Pacific Islander, or other race/ethnicity (vs white), having previous arrests, living in close proximity to the firearm dealership, and living in a more socially vulnerable census tract. Associations with race and ethnicity were modified by previous infraction-only arrests.

Conclusions

This study confirms that many previously studied correlates of firearm recovery are still relevant today. We were able to expand on previous research by examining novel associations including purchasers’ criminal history and previous firearm transaction history. These results provide evidence that can be used to disrupt firearm use in crimes.

 Inj. Epidemiol. 11, 8 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40621-024-00491-8

By Michael Sierra-Arévaloa and Justin Nix 

After more than 50 years of social science research on policing in the United States, the danger of police work remains a salient feature of police officers’ occupational environment (Loftus, 2010; Marenin, 2016; Sierra-Arévalo, 2019). Scholarly attention to the danger of policing has been renewed by recent discussion of a “war on cops” that began after the 2014 police killing of Michael Brown in Ferguson, MO. Proponents of this hypothesized war posit that the contemporary political climate has resulted in widespread distrust and even disdain of police on the part of public officials, academics, and the news media; in turn, the public has become increasingly “anti-police” and emboldened to question, resist, and violently attack police officers on U.S. streets (Mac Donald, 2016). However, despite widespread concern among police administrators (Nix et al., 2018), empirical research on the most dire implication of a war on cops—violence against police—finds no significant increases in fatal or non-fatal violence against police in recent years (Maguire et al., 2017; Shjarback & Maguire, 2019). Nonetheless, the issue of violence against police remains highly salient to U.S. politics and policy, including the rise of the Blue Lives Matter movement and the growth in laws seeking enhanced penalties for killing police officers (Craven, 2017).  Despite the rich history of research on danger in police work, however, there are several long-standing limitations to this body of scholarship. First, researchers’ operationalization of “danger” tends toward the rarest, most extreme measure of danger in police work: felonious line of-duty deaths that are driven by firearm assaults (see White et al., 2019, p. 14). This focus on felonious deaths underestimates the total scope of the danger police confront by ignoring nonfatal violence against officers (c.f. Bierie, 2017; Bierie et al., 2016), including non-fatal firearm assaults that, even though they do not result in a line-of-duty death, represent cases of deadly force directed at police. Second, analyses that attend to all assaults on police officers better capture less-than-lethal violence (e.g. punches, kicks) but do not differentiate such cases from especially lethal threats like firearm assaults (Shjarback & Maguire, 2019; Tiesman et al., 2018; c.f. Bierie et al., 2016). Third, data sources that rely on voluntary reporting by police (e.g. LEOKA, NIBRS) are limited by a lack of consistent reporting by law enforcement agencies and marked lag times in the release of said data, frustrating timely, confident estimates of a pressing public safety and policy issue (Kuhns et al., 2016, p. 6; Nix et al., 2019, p. 6; Shjarback & Maguire, 2019). Because of its inattention to cases in which officers are shot but not killed, existing research tends to provide either an underestimate of gun violence directed at officers or eschew specificity in favor of an estimate of assault broadly defined. This, in combination with the data quality and timeliness issues that affect datasets commonly used to examine violence against police, prevents accurate estimates of total firearm assaults on officers that are of longstanding salience to the issue of officer safety in the United States (Cell, 2019; The President’s Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice, 1967, p. 239).  Given the decided gravity of the problem at hand, there is a clear and urgent need for researchers to bring new, more timely data to bear. This article addresses these issues with open-source data provided by the Gun Violence Archive (GVA), a non-profit organization that collects and constantly updates data on firearm assaults of police officers across the United States. Because GVA records both fatal and non-fatal firearm assaults on police, we are able to provide an estimate of firearm assaults on police officers that includes (and differentiates) fatal and non-fatal shootings.3 We use these data to provide national- and state-level estimates of fatal and non-fatal firearm assaults against police officers in the United States from 2014 to 2019. We conclude with consideration of future directions for this research as well as the promises and limitations of data like those collected by GVA in research on violence against and by police. We also provide concrete policy recommendations for improving the quality and timeliness of data on violence against police to better support police agencies, researchers, and policy makers.    

Criminology & Public Policy, Volume19, Issue3 Special Issue:CUTTING‐EDGE RESEARCH IN POLICE POLICY AND PRACTICE August 2020 Pages 1041-1066

By Jordan B. Cohen

In the 1980s, the production of guns made with polymer (industrial plastic) stoked concerns that firearms were becoming undetectable by metal detectors in places like airports and federal buildings. In response, Congress passed, and President Ronald W. Reagan signed into law, the Undetectable Firearms Act of 1988 (UFA; P.L. 100-649).

The UFA was codified as 18 U.S.C. §922(p) and prohibits owning, purchasing, importing, receiving, and selling firearms that do not include at least 3.7 ounces of stainless steel. The UFA also prohibits handguns where the barrel, slide or cylinder, or the frame or receiver do not generate an image that accurately depicts the shape of the component when under inspection by the type of x-ray machine commonly used at airports.

The UFA included a sunset clause, after which its provisions will be repealed. The UFA’s sunset has been delayed multiple times, most recently through March 22, 2024 (P.L. 118-40).

History of Undetectable Firearms Act

The impetus for the UFA stemmed from fears that polymer-framed firearms could slip past airport metal detectors. For example, the Glock was invented in the 1980s and is a polymer-framed, semi-automatic pistol. Initially designed for the Austrian military, the Glock’s frame weighs much less than traditional steel-framed firearms and the polymer allows it to better absorb recoil than other handguns.

Some observers framed the Glock as a hijacker’s special, referring to the potentiality that it could pass through airport security undetected. Additionally, in 1986 media reports claimed that the Glock, when dismantled, “is frighteningly easy to smuggle past airport security” and that “one Pentagon security expert decided to demonstrate just how easy it would be to sneak a Glock 17 aboard an airliner.” Though not mentioned in these articles, these same metal detectors and their operators were also often not recognizing pistols made exclusively out of metal.

Beyond concerns over polymer guns, some feared that individuals may attempt to board aircrafts or enter federal buildings with nondescript, gadget firearms or firearms that, when broken into component parts, do not look like traditional firearms—such as “a James Bond-like pen gun.”

Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2024. 3p.

By Melissa W. Burek,  & Julia C. Bell

On June 13, 2022, Ohio enacted a permitless carry law (PCL), allowing Ohioans to carry a firearm without a concealed-carry license. The Center for Justice Research was tasked to explore the relationship between permitless carry and crime involving a firearm before and after the enactment of the PCL in the eight largest cities of Ohio. This exploratory study considers crime incidents involving a firearm, validated gunshot detection incidents, and the impact of PCL on law enforcement from June 2021 to June 2023. Major findings, study limitations, and future research recommendations are presented in the full report. In brief, we observed: • Results from a trend analysis indicated a significant decrease in crime incidents involving a firearm for Akron, Columbus, and Toledo, and across all 8 cities combined from June 2021- June 2023. • As displayed in the figure above, most cities’ crime rates decreased after the PCL was enacted. Unlike the other six cities, rates in Dayton and Cincinnati increased slightly, however. • Toledo, Parma, and Akron each experienced an average of 19% decrease in summed rates of crimes involving a firearm post-PCL. • Based on data from June 2021-June 2023, the enactment of the PCL does not appear to have any appreciable effect on law enforcement injuries or deaths by firearm in the cities of interest. • Data on gunshot detection technology for Toledo and Columbus also captured a decrease in validated crime incidents post-PCL by 23.2% and 20.6%, respectively. • Increases in crime rates in the spring-summer months appear both before and after the PCL went into effect for most cities (see Figure 1 in full report), but this observation could be due to the influence of other factors such as time of year or structural population characteristics. This slight acceleration in crimes involving firearms was also temporary

United States, Center for Justice Research. 2023, 22pg

By Tae-Young Pak

Surges in firearm sales after mass shootings have been well documented in the United States. This study presents three main findings regarding the impact of mass shootings on firearm demand and the moderating roles played by political and regulatory climates. First, mass shootings led to an immediate but temporary increase in gun sales. This effect continued for approximately 3–6 months after the incidents and was larger for shootings with a greater number of fatalities. Second, the association between mass shootings and gun sales was significant only under Democratic presidents. The party affiliation of the state legislature and state-level gun control did not moderate this association. Third, the increased firearm sales after mass shootings did not result in a higher level of firearm ownership. It appeared most purchases were made by current gun owners stockpiling additional firearms, thus indicating the fear of stricter gun control as a likely motivation. This study offers the following policy implications: (a) the public debates concerning gun violence could have the unintended consequence of raising gun demand among current owners, (b) the message of tightening gun control could increase the total stock of firearms in circulation, and (c) the regulations to prevent future mass shootings may be better addressed by the state government as a state-level regulation does not trigger demand response among potential consumers. 

Germany, Munich Personal RePEc Archive. 2022, 33pg

By Rebecca F. Wilson, Sasha Mintz, Janet M. Blair, Carter J. Betz, Abby Collier, and Katherine A. Fowler

In the United States, unintentional injury is the fourth leading cause of death among infants (i.e., children aged <1 year) and is the top cause of death among children and adolescents aged 1–17 years; firearms are a leading injury method. Unsecured firearms (e.g., unlocked and loaded) are associated with risk for unintentional childhood firearm injury death. Data recorded during 2003–2021 by the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) from 49 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico were used to characterize unintentional firearm injury deaths of U.S. infants, children, and adolescents aged 0–17 years (referred to as children in this report). NVDRS identified 1,262 unintentional firearm injury deaths among children aged 0–17 years: the largest percentage (33%) of these deaths were among children aged 11–15 years, followed by 29% among those aged 0–5 years, 24% among those aged 16–17 years, and 14% among persons aged 6–10 years. Overall, 83% of unintentional firearm injury deaths occurred among boys. The majority (85%) of victims were fatally injured at a house or apartment, including 56% in their own home. Approximately one half (53%) of fatal unintentional firearm injuries to children were inflicted by others; 38% were self-inflicted. In 9% of incidents, it was unknown whether the injury was self- or other-inflicted. Approximately two thirds (67%) of shooters were playing with or showing the firearm to others when it discharged. Overall, firearms used in unintentional injury deaths were often stored loaded (74%) and unlocked (76%) and were most commonly accessed from nightstands and other sleeping areas (30%). Unintentional firearm injury deaths of children are preventable. Secured firearm storage practices (e.g., storing firearms locked, unloaded, and separate from ammunition) have been identified as protective factors against child firearm injuries and deaths, underscoring the importance of policymakers, health care professionals (e.g., pediatricians), and others partnering with parents, caregivers, and firearm owners to promote secure firearm storage.  

United States, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. 2023, 8pg

By Greg Berman

HFG’s ‘At the Crossroads’ series concludes with the publication of  “Behind the Rise in Gun Violence in New York and Other American Cities,” a compilation of the twelve interviews conducted by Harry Frank Guggenheim Distinguished Fellow of Practice Greg Berman with an essay illuminating common themes and practical approaches to ending such violence.

United States, Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation. 2022, 152pg

By Justin Nix and John A. Shjarback

Objectives

To quantify nonfatal injurious police shootings of people and examine the factors associated with victim mortality.

Methods

We gathered victim-level data on fatal and nonfatal injurious police shootings from four states that have such information publicly available: Florida (2009–14), Colorado (2010–19), Texas (2015–19), and California (2016–19). For each state, we examined bivariate associations between mortality and race/ethnicity, gender, age, weapon, and access to trauma care. We also estimated logistic regression models predicting victim mortality in each state.

Results

Forty-five percent of these police shooting victims (N = 1,322) did not die. Black–white disparities were more pronounced in nonfatal injurious police shootings than in fatal police shootings. Overall, Black victims were less likely than white victims to die from their wound(s). Younger victims were less likely to die from their wound(s), as well as those who were unarmed.

Conclusions

Racial and age disparities in police shootings are likely more pronounced than previous estimates suggest.

Policy implications

Other states should strongly consider compiling data like that which is currently being gathered in California. Absent data on nonfatal injurious police shootings–which account for a large share of deadly force incidents–researchers and analysts must be cautious about comparing and/or ranking jurisdictions in terms of their police-involved fatality rates.

PLOS One,  November 10, 2021

By Daniel S. Nagin

Do states with more guns have higher rates of fatal police shootings? This article uses a validated measure of firearm availability (the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm) to examine the relationship between gun proliferation and fatal police shootings. It expands on existing research to include (1) measures of access to Level I and II trauma centers, (2) interpretation of the findings from the lenses of “statistical prediction,” and (3) tests for structural differences between models for black descendants versus nonblack decedents. Findings confirm the correlation between statewide prevalence of gun ownership and fatal police shootings for both all decedents and unarmed decedents. It provides partial support for “statistical prediction” by police and finds that greater access to trauma centers is associated with lower rates of citizen deaths. The analysis suggests a far broader range of policy options for saving lives, such as better enforcement of legal restrictions on firearm possession, than focusing solely on policing systems.

The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social ScienceVolume 687, Issue 1, January 2020, Pages 49-57

By Charles C Lanfear , Rebecca Bucci , David S Kirk , Robert J Sampson

Importance: The past quarter-century has seen both sharp declines and increases in firearm violence in the United States. Yet, little is known about the age of first exposure to firearm violence and how it may differ by race, sex, and cohort.

Objective: To examine race, sex, and cohort differences in exposure to firearm violence in a representative longitudinal study of children who grew up in periods with varying rates of firearm violence in the United States and to examine spatial proximity to firearm violence in adulthood.

Design, setting, and participants: This population-based representative cohort study included multiple cohorts of children followed-up from 1995 through 2021 in the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN). Participants included Black, Hispanic, and White respondents from 4 age cohorts of Chicago, Illinois, residents, with modal birth years of 1981, 1984, 1987, and 1996. Data analyses were conducted from May 2022 to March 2023.

Main outcomes and measures: Firearm violence exposure, including age when first shot, age when first saw someone shot, and past-year frequency of fatal and nonfatal shootings within 250 m of residence.

Results: There were 2418 participants in wave 1 (in the mid-1990s), and they were evenly split by sex, with 1209 males (50.00%) and 1209 females (50.00%). There were 890 Black respondents, 1146 Hispanic respondents, and 382 White respondents. Male respondents were much more likely than female respondents to have been shot (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 4.23; 95% CI, 2.28-7.84), but only moderately more likely to have seen someone shot (aHR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.27-1.72). Compared with White individuals, Black individuals experienced higher rates of all 3 forms of exposure (been shot: aHR, 3.05; 95% CI, 1.22-7.60; seen someone shot: aHR, 4.69; 95% CI, 3.41-6.46; nearby shootings: adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR], 12.40; 95% CI, 6.88-22.35), and Hispanic respondents experienced higher rates of 2 forms of violence exposure (seen someone shot: aHR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.85-3.62; nearby shootings: aIRR, 3.77; 95% CI, 2.08-6.84). Respondents born in the mid-1990s who grew up amidst large declines in homicide but reached adulthood during city and national spikes in firearm violence in 2016 were less likely to have seen someone shot than those born in the early 1980s who grew up during the peak of homicide in the early 1990s (aHR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.35-0.69). However, the likelihood of having been shot did not significantly differ between these cohorts (aHR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.40-1.63).

Conclusions and relevance: In this longitudinal multicohort study of exposure to firearm violence, there were stark differences by race and sex, yet the extent of exposure to violence was not simply the product of these characteristics. These findings on cohort differences suggest changing societal conditions were key factors associated with whether and at what life stage individuals from all race and sex groups were exposed to firearm violence.

JAMA Network Open 6(5); 2023

Bailey K. Roberts, Colleen P. Nofi,  Emma Cornell,  Sandeep Kapoor,  Laura Harrison,  Chethan Sathya, 

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In 2020, firearm injuries became the leading cause of death among US abstract children and adolescents. This study aimed to evaluate new 2021 data on US pediatric firearm deaths and disparities to understand trends compared with previous years. METHODS: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research was queried for firearm mortalities in children/adolescents from 2018 to 2021. Absolute mortality, death rates, and characteristics were reported. Death rates were defined per 100 000 persons in that population per year. Death rates across states were illustrated via geographic heat maps, and correlations with state poverty levels were calculated. RESULTS: In 2021, firearms continued to be the leading cause of death among US children. From 2018 to 2021, there was a 41.6% increase in the firearm death rate. In 2021, among children who died by firearms, 84.8% were male, 49.9% were Black, 82.6% were aged 15 to 19 years, and 64.3% died by homicide. Black children accounted for 67.3% of firearm homicides, with a death rate increase of 1.8 from 2020 to 2021. White children accounted for 78.4% of firearm suicides. From 2020 to 2021, the suicide rate increased among Black and white children, yet decreased among American Indian or Alaskan Native children. Geographically, there were worsening clusters of firearm death rates in Southern states and increasing rates in Midwestern states from 2018 to 2021. Across the United States, higher poverty levels correlated with higher firearm death rates (R 5 0.76, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: US pediatric firearm deaths increased in 2021, above the spike in 2020, with worsening disparities. Implementation of prevention strategies and policies among communities at highest risk is critical 

Pediatrics (2023) 152 (3): e2023061296.

By Brady United Against Gun Violence

Understanding the source of America’s gun violence epidemic is essential to building effective solutions to prevent it. For decades, laws passed at the behest of the gun industry have shielded important information from public view, making it nearly impossible to understand how, and from where, guns are funneled into the criminal market. Brady has used Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests to uncover information in an attempt to better understand how guns make their way from the legal marketplace to ultimately being used in crime. This report examines federal records that identify gun dealers subject to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ (ATF) Demand Letter 2 program — a program created to identify firearms dealers that sell the most crime guns and to aid law enforcement investigations. Only 2% of gun dealers nationwide are subject to this program, which includes dealers who have sold at least 25 guns that were recovered in crime during the past year that were found to have taken less than three years to make it from point of sale to being recovered in that crime. The ATF had identified that this low “time-to-crime” is a strong indicator of gun trafficking. This report, and its underlying national data, are the clearest look we’ve had in two decades as to which gun dealers sell the most crime guns. Absent complete transparency into the gun industry’s role in supplying firearms that fuel our nation’s gun violence epidemic, this data is the best indicator we have as to which gun dealers are fueling crime.

Washington, DC: Brady Campaign, 2024. 20p

By David Lochhead, Tidiani Diakité, Roberto Sollazzo, Saikou Sow, Raoul Sumo Tayo, Leonard Tettey

The use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in West Africa expanded dramatically between 2014 and 2022. As of 2022, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria were heavily affected by these weapons, while Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo suffered from their use as an emerging threat. IED-building networks have established material and training links across conflict theatres in West and Central Africa, including the Lake Chad Basin, where armed groups have used IEDs extensively. IED designs have remained constant and inexpensive throughout the West Africa region, making them attractive for use in attacks against domestic and international security forces, UN peacekeepers, and civilians. The Small Arms Survey collected data on more than 2,200 IED-related incidents between March 2013 and September 2022, including the type, date, and location of these events. Information on perpetrators, their targets, and more than 6,600 casualties from deaths and injuries was also collected (Small Arms Survey, 2022). The data was collected through research undertaken in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, and Niger, as well as desk research and remote interviews concerning Benin, Chad, and Nigeria. Where relevant from a comparative perspective, discussion of other regions that have countries with IED incidents or components occurs throughout the Report, such as those in North Africa, Central Africa, East Africa, and the Middle East. Most IED incidents analysed during this study involved IEDs containing explosive components or precursors specifically manufactured for the commercial extractive and construction sectors. Chemical products such as ammonium nitrate (AN), manufactured and supplied for bulk mining explosive emulsions, have entered IED-building networks, and are sourced principally from Ghana and Nigeria. Commercial explosives in bulk, including their precursors and accessories such as electric initiators and detonating cords, are diverted from the legal to illicit markets. This diversion primarily fulfils demand from the largely unregulated artisanal gold mining sector across West and Central Africa. A small subset of this diverted material also provisions IED construction. Captured, stolen, and recovered explosive ordnance—including legacy anti-vehicle mines trafficked from Chad, Libya, and possibly Sudan—also constitutes a source of IED components. Coordinated action among affected, source, and transit states is required to prevent armed groups and criminals from accessing commercial explosive materials and other IED components. Such action can involve: national stocktaking exercises; the development of national and regional counter-IED (C-IED) strategies; monitoring, information-sharing, and coordination mechanisms; regulatory modernization and harmonization;  engagement with artisanal mining associations, the mining and explosives industry, states, and regional trade blocs in pursuit of regulatory reform; and efforts to establish minimum standards for bulk and individual traceability of commercial explosives. Reducing the recovery of explosive ordnance requires renewed programmatic investment in clearing minefields and explosive remnants of war across the Sahe   

Geneva, SWIT:  Small Arms Survey, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies , 2023.  124p.

By Anne-Séverine Fabre, Nicolas Florquin, and Matt Schroeder

The trafficking of firearms and their use in criminal violence in Europe has received significant attention from researchers and policymakers. Less is known, however, about the illicit proliferation of firearm ammunition and other explosive munitions. Currently, detailed data on illicit munitions in Europe can only be accessed through specialized law enforcement agencies. National seizure statistics often lack the necessary detail for policy-relevant analysis, as do the media reports, which often include incomplete or inaccurate information on the types and calibres of ammunition. 

KEY FINDINGS • Calibres typically associated with handguns and widely available commercial brands of ammunition usually represent the bulk of the illicit firearm ammunition seen in the countries studied. • Illicit firearms ammunition is not necessarily trafficked from abroad, as shown by the misuse of domestically produced cartridges in the five surveyed countries. Moreover, cartridges produced legally within the European Union (EU) have been recovered the same year at crime scenes. • A large percentage of illicit hand grenades and other factory-produced explosive munitions seized in the European countries under review were manufactured in the former Yugoslavia. The seizures are consistent with media reports and government statements indicating that the Balkans are a major source of illicit grenades acquired and used by criminals in the EU. • The number of illicit grenades documented in the Netherlands and Sweden has decreased significantly in recent years, possibly owing to Covid-19-related travel and shipping disruptions, an increased reliance on other types of explosives by criminals, and national and regional counter-trafficking efforts.

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2023. 24p.

By Rachel A. Kane; Basia E. Lopez; Paul A. Haskins

This Special Report of the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) presents a synthesis of select findings from over 60 publications on 18 NIJ-supported research projects on public mass shootings, including school mass shootings, since 2014. It also identifies areas of need and interest for future research and recommendations. For the purpose of this report, we define public mass shooting as a shooting event in a public setting that causes at least four fatalities in a single event. Excluded from our definition are events that occur in the course of a separate felony or domestic incident. However, the definition of a mass shooting varies among sources; for more information see “The Challenges of Defining ‘Mass Shooting’” in Part I of this report.

Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice , 2023. 42p.

By: Jonathan P. Caulkins, Philippe C. Schicker, H. Brinton Milward & Peter Reuter

Overdose deaths in North America have soared, primarily because of the spread of illegally manufactured fentanyl. This paper uses detailed qualitative and transaction-level data to analyse an early and prominent dark web fentanyl-selling operation. The data record the date, drug, quantity, and selling price for 5,589 transactions comprising 872,659 items sold for a little over $2.8 million through AlphaBay. Findings include that the organisation sustained an impressive sales growth rate of approximately 15% per week, com-pounded. Increasing order sizes by a factor of ten reduced the price per pill by approximately 25% for Oxycodone and 50% for Xanax. Those steep quantity discounts imply large price markups when selling further down the distribution chain. Such high growth rates and price markups suggest that it might be difficult to constrain supply by shutting down individual organisations, since any remain-ing organisations may be able to quickly grow to fill unmet demand.

Glob. Crime 2023