By Eli Ben-Michael , Mitchell L. Doucette , Avi Feller , Alexander D. McCourt, and Elizabeth A. Stuart

Gun violence is a critical public health and safety concern in the United States. There is considerable variability in policy proposals meant to curb gun violence, ranging from increasing gun availability to deter potential assailants (e.g., concealed carry laws or arming school teachers) to restricting access to firearms (e.g., universal background checks or banning assault weapons). Many studies use state-level variation in the enactment of these policies in order to quantify their effect on gun violence. In this paper, we discuss the policy trial emulation framework for evaluating the impact of these policies, and show how to apply this framework to estimating impacts via difference-in-differences and synthetic controls when there is staggered adoption of policies across jurisdictions, estimating the impacts of right-to-carry laws on violent crime as a case study. 

Unpublished paper 2024.

By Mitchell L Doucette, Julie A Ward, Alex D McCourt, Daniel Webster, Cassandra K Crifasi

About 1,000 civilians are killed every year by a law enforcement officer in the USA, more than 90% by firearms. Most civilians who are shot are armed with firearms. Higher rates of officer involved shootings (OIS) are positively associated with state-level firearm ownership. Laws relaxing restrictions on civilians carrying concealed firearms (CCW) have been associated with increased violent crime. This study examines associations between CCW laws and OIS. We accessed counts of fatal and nonfatal OIS from the Gun Violence Archive (GVA) from 2014–2020 and calculated rates using population estimates. We conducted legal research to identify passage years of CCW laws. We used augmented synthetic control models with fixed effects to estimate the effect of Permitless CCW law adoption on OIS over fourteen biannual semesters. We calculated an inverse variance weighted average of the overall effect. On average, Permitless CCW adopting states saw a 12.9% increase in the OIS victimization rate or an additional 4 OIS victimizations per year, compared to what would have happened had law  adoption not occurred. Lax laws regulating civilian carrying of concealed firearms were associated with higher incidence of OIS. The increase in concealed gun carrying frequency associated with these laws may influence the perceived threat of danger faced by law enforcement. This could contribute to higher rates of OIS. 

J Urban Health (2022) 99:373 384

By Stefan Schaufelbühl , Nicolas Florquin , Denis Werner , Olivier Delémont

3D-printed firearms, an emerging category of privately made firearms (PMF) produced beyond government control, have become increasingly prevalent due to technological advancements. They are now emerging as a cost-effective and reliable alternative to conventional firearms. Raised to public awareness following the 2013 release of the 3D-printed Liberator, these firearms are now more commonly encountered by police forces. This article analyses various reports involving 3D-printed firearms, reflecting the increasing encounters by law enforcement agencies. It examines 186 cases involving 3D-printed firearms, primarily from North America, Europe, and Oceania, highlighting a significant rise in incidents since 2021. These incidents include seizures, illicit uses, and online sales, with the firearms typically being hybrid models, Parts Kit Completions/Conversions (PKC), or firearm components such as auto sears. The study underscores the use of affordable equipment and materials for production, emphasizing the accessibility and potential risks of these firearms.

Forensic Sci Int Synerg. 2024 Mar 28:8:100464.

By Yulia Yarina and Nicolas Florquin

Dangerous Devices: Privately Made Firearms in the Caribbean—a new Situation Update by the Small Arms Survey and its partners CARICOM IMPACS, CARPHA, and GA-CDRC at the University of the West Indies—examines the latest trends and developments regarding PMFs, their production and circulation in the Caribbean region, and calls for more in-depth data collection on these types of weapons to help tackle this threat to security and public health. The Situation Update was launched at the side event ‘A Public Health Crisis: Small Arms Trafficking and Violence in the Caribbean,’ held on 18 June 2024 on the margins of the Fourth Review Conference of the UN Programme of Action on Small Arms. KEY FINDINGS • While privately made firearms (PMFs) represent a small proportion of all firearm seizures in the Caribbean region, the threat appears to be growing as police are recovering a range of different types of PMFs. • Significant seizures of partially finished frames and computer numerical control (CNC)-milled receivers used to assemble firearms have been recorded since April 2023. • The first reported seizure of 3D-printed firearms in the region occurred in August 2023. Seizures of 3D-printed firearms and components have taken place in at least three countries since, also leading to the dismantlement of workshops and recovery of 3D printers. • Seizures of so-called ‘conversion devices’ in several countries underscore the particular threat they pose to public health in the region, given that they can be used to convert semi-automatic pistols and rifles to fully automatic weapons, thus increasing the risk of multiple injuries. • Few seized PMFs are identified as such in the publicly available reports examined by the Survey, which suggests that efforts are needed to improve the detection, identification, and monitoring of these weapons. • Death certificates and other public health records currently do not always capture detailed information about the types of firearms used in shootings, including whether they might have been PMFs.   

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2024. 24p

By Gergely Hideg

The household firearms possession rate in Ukraine has been stable since the 2022 Russian invasion. At that time, 6 percent of households reported possessing firearms, which is similar to the 5.6 per cent that did so in a more recent survey carried out at the end of 2023. In fact, in the sampled households the aggregate number of firearms kept at home decreased by 15 per cent during the same period. • During this period, crime victimization levels were only slightly above pre-2022 levels; however, when crimes occur, firearms are increasingly more likely to be used. In late 2023, 11 per cent of all victims said they encountered a firearm during the crime incidents they experienced during the previous 12 months, up from 6 per cent a year earlier. Findings from the latest survey reveal that at the end of 2023, nearly four out of ten firearm owning households were unaware of the Unified Register of Weapons (39 per cent), which was launched in June 2023.  About three-quarters (74 per cent) of respondents whose households owned firearms and knew about the register said all their weapons were registered. Among all survey respondents who reported firearms possession at home, however, only 45 per cent indicated that their firearms were registered. • The war is resulting in an increase in the population of soldiers and veterans, who as a whole tend to adopt distinct attitudes towards firearm ownership. For instance, 31 percent of respondents with combat experience (pre- or post-2022) reported a firearm at their home and 18 per cent declared owning a firearm personally— compared with only about 6 and 3 per cent, respectively, for the general population

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2024. 11p. 

By James H. Burch II,  Stacey Clouse , Annelise M. Pietenpol

The Joyce Foundation commissioned the National Policing Institute (NPI) to assess and produce a report on mandatory reporting laws for lost and stolen firearms and how law enforcement agencies are currently using, enforcing, and encouraging compliance with such laws. This report supports the Joyce Foundation’s efforts to identify barriers and inform policymakers and law enforcement leaders on best practices related to the enforcement of reporting lost and stolen firearms. Across the nation, policymakers and law enforcement agencies have turned to different legal and policy approaches to address gun violence and the movement or “diversion” of firearms from the legal to the illegal market, where criminals and those who are prohibited by law from having firearms may obtain them. State laws mandating reporting of lost and stolen firearms are intended to address the issue of criminal access to firearms, yet very little is known about implementation best practices and challenges. This study, likely the first to assess implementation and design questions across the states, finds that changes are needed to realize much of the benefit these laws were intended to provide. Specifically, the results of this study suggest that: • Mandatory reporting laws for lost and stolen firearms may be designed or applied in ways that dilute their potential impact. • Some penalties may have limited or no potential for deterrence, may undermine the importance or significance of reporting or the law itself, and contribute to concerns over criminal justice fines and fees. • The laws appear to lack the necessary support of clear implementation approaches and input and support of state and local law enforcement. However, the study does not find that the laws serve no purpose or that they should be abolished or abandoned. Instead, the study proposes alternative approaches emphasizing incentives and behavioral change over punitive measures. It advocates for enhanced civil liability provisions and educational initiatives to promote awareness and compliance with reporting laws among firearm owners and sellers. Additionally, it underscores the effectiveness of targeted awareness campaigns and problem-oriented policing strategies in deterring firearm-related offenses such as straw purchasing. Furthermore, the study provides more than 20 recommendations to be considered by government and policy leaders, law enforcement, and communities. These recommendations include: • Reconsidering small or low penalties, such as fines, and considering alternatives, such as enhanced liability provisions and restrictions on future registrations and licensing (where applicable) that may be more powerful than the threat of fines for violators. • Consider the issue of intent in failures to report or lack of knowledge of the reporting requirement and consider offering liability protections in future civil action associated with the firearm’s loss or theft when timely reporting has occurred. • Requiring firearm sellers to provide notice of the mandatory reporting law, stipulate the information required for reporting, and establish responsibilities of law enforcement receiving reports of lost or stolen firearms. • Ensuring that national systems for sharing information on stolen and recovered firearms are utilized consistently. • Considering innovative programs, including state-level, publicly accessible, and searchable stolen firearms databases to allow prospective purchasers to ensure that the firearm they may be purchasing from a private seller has not been reported stolen and providing federal funding to support innovative approaches. • Review firearm recovery protocols for law enforcement to ensure that all recovered firearms are checked against the National Crime Information Center (NCIC) as soon as possible after recovery. • Improving training and outreach to law enforcement, firearm sellers, and owners to promote compliance with the law and ways of reducing theft, including safe storage requirements and guidance. • Prioritizing further research into firearm theft and mandatory reporting laws through additional or set-aside research funding from federal grant-making organizations.    

Arlington VA: National Policing Institute, 2024.   44p.

By The Independent Commission to Investigate the Facts of the Tragedy in Lewiston

At 6:54 p.m. on October 25, 2023, 40-year-old Army Reservist Robert Card II (Card) entered the Just-In-Time Recreation Facility in Lewiston, Maine, armed with a .308 Ruger SFAR4 rifle with a scope and laser. Over 60 patrons and employees, including 20 children, were present. In 45 seconds, Card fired 18 rounds, killing eight people and wounding three others. Additional people suffered injuries while trying to hide or escape. Card then drove about four miles to Schemengees Bar and Grille. He left his car running outside the main entrance and entered the building at 7:07 p.m. In 78 seconds, he fired 36 rounds, killing ten more people and wounding ten others. Additional individuals suffered other injuries during the chaos. In total, Card killed 18 people and wounded 13 in less than two minutes inside those businesses. Card is solely responsible for his conduct. He caused the deaths and injuries inflicted that night. Although he might still have committed a mass shooting even if someone had managed to remove Card’s firearms before October 25, 2023, there were several opportunities that, if taken, might have changed the course of events. The Commission affirms its earlier unanimous finding that in September 2023, the Sagadahoc County Sheriff’s Office (SCSO) had sufficient probable cause to take Card into protective custody under Maine’s yellow flag law5 and to initiate a petition to confiscate any firearms he possessed or over which he had control. Several law enforcement officials testified that the yellow flag law is cumbersome, inefficient, and unduly restrictive regarding who can initiate a proceeding to limit a person’s access to firearms. Further, the SCSO is justified in pointing out that the Army Reserve (AR) did not share all the relevant information it had about Card’s behavior. Nevertheless, under the circumstances existing and known to the SCSO in September of 2023, the yellow flag law authorized the SCSO to start the process of obtaining a court order to remove Card’s firearms. The Commission further finds that the leaders of Card’s (AR) Unit failed to undertake necessary steps to reduce the threat he posed to the public. His commanding officers were well aware of his auditory hallucinations, increasingly aggressive behavior, collection of guns, and ominous comments about his intentions. Despite their knowledge, they ignored the strong recommendations of Card’s Army mental health providers to stay engaged with his care and "make [e] sure that steps are taken to remove weapons” from his home. They neglected to share with the SCSO all the information relating to Card’s threatening behavior and actually discounted some of the evidence about the threat posed by Card. Had they presented a full and complete accounting of the facts, the SCSO might have acted more assertively in September. While the AR leaders correctly point out that their authority over a reservist like Card is not as broad as the authority the military has over their active-duty service members, they failed to take advantage of the available opportunities to exercise their authority over him. Finally, we find that the challenges faced by law enforcement in responding to the shootings were unprecedented in Maine: two active shooting sites with dozens killed and injured, multiple reports of other active shooting sites, gathering and preserving evidence for possible criminal prosecution, and a simultaneous state-wide manhunt. Many law enforcement officers demonstrated bravery and professionalism in the face of danger. While the first hours were, at times, “utter chaos” as hundreds of law enforcement officers poured into Lewiston and were dispatched or self-dispatched to numerous scenes, the actions of law enforcement ultimately resulted in the discovery of Card’s body within 49 hours without further loss of life. While the Commission makes some findings about the actions of law enforcement following the shooting, we anticipate that the Maine State Police (MSP) will conduct a full after-action review with an independent evaluation by an entity with policing expertise. The MSP has already completed a "Manhunt Operations After Action Review" focused on tactical operations with an independent evaluation by the Pennsylvania State Police. Not only would a full after-action review allow for professional recommendations about policy, protocol, and other policing improvements, it would likely confirm what this Commission recognizes as positive and successful examples of the law enforcement response.    

Lewiston, ME: The Commission, 2024. 215p.

By Melissa W. Burek,  & Julia C. Bell

On June 13, 2022, Ohio enacted a permitless carry law (PCL), allowing Ohioans to carry a firearm without a concealed-carry license. The Center for Justice Research was tasked to explore the relationship between permitless carry and crime involving a firearm before and after the enactment of the PCL in the eight largest cities of Ohio. This exploratory study considers crime incidents involving a firearm, validated gunshot detection incidents, and the impact of PCL on law enforcement from June 2021 to June 2023. Major findings, study limitations, and future research recommendations are presented in the full report. In brief, we observed: • Results from a trend analysis indicated a significant decrease in crime incidents involving a firearm for Akron, Columbus, and Toledo, and across all 8 cities combined from June 2021- June 2023. • As displayed in the figure above, most cities’ crime rates decreased after the PCL was enacted. Unlike the other six cities, rates in Dayton and Cincinnati increased slightly, however. • Toledo, Parma, and Akron each experienced an average of 19% decrease in summed rates of crimes involving a firearm post-PCL. • Based on data from June 2021-June 2023, the enactment of the PCL does not appear to have any appreciable effect on law enforcement injuries or deaths by firearm in the cities of interest. • Data on gunshot detection technology for Toledo and Columbus also captured a decrease in validated crime incidents post-PCL by 23.2% and 20.6%, respectively. • Increases in crime rates in the spring-summer months appear both before and after the PCL went into effect for most cities (see Figure 1 in full report), but this observation could be due to the influence of other factors such as time of year or structural population characteristics. This slight acceleration in crimes involving firearms was also temporary

United States, Center for Justice Research. 2023, 22pg

By Tae-Young Pak

Surges in firearm sales after mass shootings have been well documented in the United States. This study presents three main findings regarding the impact of mass shootings on firearm demand and the moderating roles played by political and regulatory climates. First, mass shootings led to an immediate but temporary increase in gun sales. This effect continued for approximately 3–6 months after the incidents and was larger for shootings with a greater number of fatalities. Second, the association between mass shootings and gun sales was significant only under Democratic presidents. The party affiliation of the state legislature and state-level gun control did not moderate this association. Third, the increased firearm sales after mass shootings did not result in a higher level of firearm ownership. It appeared most purchases were made by current gun owners stockpiling additional firearms, thus indicating the fear of stricter gun control as a likely motivation. This study offers the following policy implications: (a) the public debates concerning gun violence could have the unintended consequence of raising gun demand among current owners, (b) the message of tightening gun control could increase the total stock of firearms in circulation, and (c) the regulations to prevent future mass shootings may be better addressed by the state government as a state-level regulation does not trigger demand response among potential consumers. 

Germany, Munich Personal RePEc Archive. 2022, 33pg