By Allen Copenhaver, Nick Bowman, and Christopher J. Ferguson

Twitter is a popular social medium for members of the U.S. Congress, and the platform has become a focal for framing policy discussions for constituents and the media. The current study examines the corpus of N = 5,768 Congressional tweets sent on the day of and week following the 2018 Parkland shooting, over 25 percent of which (n = 1,615) were related to the shooting. Democrats were far more likely to engage Parkland as a prominent topic in their Twitter feeds. Democrats framed Parkland discussions in terms of outrage and criticism, as well as discussions of the potential causes of and (legislative) solutions to gun violence. Republicans mostly avoided Parkland discussions and political framing. 

Journal of Mass Violence Research, 2023  

By DJ Summers  

Colorado’s crime surge in the early 2020s was not limited to property and violent crimes. Human trafficking also surged. These offenses come in two forms. Victims are either coerced into labor or into commercial sex acts, the latter of which represents the majority of Colorado’s human trafficking. Colorado is not an outlier. Nationally, human trafficking has increased as well and reached a ten-year high in 2023. Colorado’s human trafficking is more severe than elsewhere. The state ranks among the states with the highest numbers of human trafficking reports and rates of human trafficking reports. To understand the problem of human trafficking better, leaders should consider better means of assembling data that would show trends among offenders and victims.

Key Findings

In 2023, Colorado had the nation’s 10th-highest number of human trafficking reports, 84 in total.

 In the U.S., the total number of reported human trafficking incidents rose and reached a 15-year peak in 2023, with 3,117, more than twice the number reported in 2019.[i]

Colorado had the nation’s 10th highest rate of human trafficking reports per 100,000 at 1.44.

 Colorado reached a record amount of human trafficking in 2023, with 84 reported incidents.

On average, there have been 74 reports of human trafficking in Colorado in 2021, 2022, and 2023. Between 2016 and 2020, there were an average 48 per year.

Adams County is the location for the largest share of Colorado’s human trafficking both over time (27%) and in 2023 (26%).  

El Paso and Denver counties rank second and third from 2008 to 2024, with 21% and 18%, respectively.

 In the record year 2023, Adams, Boulder, and Denver counties had the highest shares of human trafficking at 26%, 15%, and 18%, respectively.

 Greenwood Village, CO: Common Sense Institute, 2024. 10p.

By Rebecca Valek, Julie A. Ward, Vanya Jones & Cassandra K. Crifasi 

U.S. firearm sales surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, with many purchases by first-time firearm owners. The 2023 National Survey of Gun Policy sought to understand the public health implications of this surge by comparing the purchasing motivations and firearm policy views of pandemic-era first-time purchasers to prior gun owners. We fielded a nationally representative public opinion survey of U.S. adults (n = 3096) from 1/4/23 to 2/6/23. We oversampled for gun owners and Black, Hispanic, and Asian Americans. Survey weights were applied to generate representative estimates. New gun owners were identified through affirmative responses to: “Have you bought any guns since January 1, 2020?” and “Did you buy your first gun after January 1, 2020?” Recent purchasers were additionally asked whether concerns of 1) political or 2) racial violence motivated their purchase. Purchase motivations and gun policy support were examined among new and prior gun owners (n = 1002) and compared using logistic regression and predictive probabilities. Overall, 11% of respondents reported purchasing a gun since 1/1/20, 35% for the first time. Among recent purchasers, larger proportions of Democrat, Black, Asian, and Hispanic respondents were new gun owners than Republican or white respondents. Compared to prior owners, odds were 4.5-times higher that new gun owners’ recent purchase was motivated by racial violence and 3.2-times higher for political violence. Majority support was found for protective gun policies, with few differences by purchase recency or motivations. The only policy for which support by new and prior gun owners differed significantly was the permit-to-purchase policy (76% v. 63%, respectively). Similarly, few significant differences in support were observed when stratifying by purchase motivation. Notably, both those who reported recent purchase motivations of racial violence and of political violence expressed significantly higher support for a “stand-your-ground” policy compared to those who did not report such motivations.Racial and political violence appear to be larger concerns among new gun owners, motivating purchasing among demographic groups with traditionally lower gun ownership rates. These findings suggest a need for safety assurances amid racial and political tensions and growing gun ownership. Gun owners’ support for such policies remains strong.

Injury Epidemiology 11, Article number: 48 (2024)          

By Eric L. Piza, George O. Mohler, Nathan T. Connealy, Rachael Arietti & Jeremy G. Carter 

Objectives -  This study explores the level to which Gunshot Detection Technology (GDT) leads to increased arrests and stops as compared to shots fired calls for service (CFS) in Chicago, Illinois. Methods A two-process Knox test and point process test are applied to measure the level to which GDT alerts and CFS cluster with arrests and stops in space and time. Both tests are first applied to the aggregate arrest and stops data. We then disaggregate arrests and stops by type as well as suspect race/ethnicity to measure any disproportionate effects across GDT and CFS. Results Both GDT alerts and CFS are significantly associated with arrests and stops occurring in close spatial and temporal proximity. The relative effect of GDT and CFS was consistent across race in the majority of instances. The small number of instances with disparate effects did not exhibit any clear patterning. For some racial groups and arrest/stop types, GDT was associated with heightened enforcement while CFS had a null effect, with the opposite relationship observed for other racial groups and arrest/stop types. Conclusions:  Overall, the results indicate that GDT systems may not generate racial disparities in arrests and stops above and beyond what results from the standard police response to gunfire. Racial disparities resulting from police responses to reported gunfire likely relate to aspects of the reporting and dispatch processes generally rather than as they relate specifi cally to GDT.

Journal of Quantitative Criminology July 2024

By Stefan Schaufelbühl , Nicolas Florquin , Denis Werner , Olivier Delémont

3D-printed firearms, an emerging category of privately made firearms (PMF) produced beyond government control, have become increasingly prevalent due to technological advancements. They are now emerging as a cost-effective and reliable alternative to conventional firearms. Raised to public awareness following the 2013 release of the 3D-printed Liberator, these firearms are now more commonly encountered by police forces. This article analyses various reports involving 3D-printed firearms, reflecting the increasing encounters by law enforcement agencies. It examines 186 cases involving 3D-printed firearms, primarily from North America, Europe, and Oceania, highlighting a significant rise in incidents since 2021. These incidents include seizures, illicit uses, and online sales, with the firearms typically being hybrid models, Parts Kit Completions/Conversions (PKC), or firearm components such as auto sears. The study underscores the use of affordable equipment and materials for production, emphasizing the accessibility and potential risks of these firearms.

Forensic Sci Int Synerg. 2024 Mar 28:8:100464.

By Yulia Yarina and Nicolas Florquin

Dangerous Devices: Privately Made Firearms in the Caribbean—a new Situation Update by the Small Arms Survey and its partners CARICOM IMPACS, CARPHA, and GA-CDRC at the University of the West Indies—examines the latest trends and developments regarding PMFs, their production and circulation in the Caribbean region, and calls for more in-depth data collection on these types of weapons to help tackle this threat to security and public health. The Situation Update was launched at the side event ‘A Public Health Crisis: Small Arms Trafficking and Violence in the Caribbean,’ held on 18 June 2024 on the margins of the Fourth Review Conference of the UN Programme of Action on Small Arms. KEY FINDINGS • While privately made firearms (PMFs) represent a small proportion of all firearm seizures in the Caribbean region, the threat appears to be growing as police are recovering a range of different types of PMFs. • Significant seizures of partially finished frames and computer numerical control (CNC)-milled receivers used to assemble firearms have been recorded since April 2023. • The first reported seizure of 3D-printed firearms in the region occurred in August 2023. Seizures of 3D-printed firearms and components have taken place in at least three countries since, also leading to the dismantlement of workshops and recovery of 3D printers. • Seizures of so-called ‘conversion devices’ in several countries underscore the particular threat they pose to public health in the region, given that they can be used to convert semi-automatic pistols and rifles to fully automatic weapons, thus increasing the risk of multiple injuries. • Few seized PMFs are identified as such in the publicly available reports examined by the Survey, which suggests that efforts are needed to improve the detection, identification, and monitoring of these weapons. • Death certificates and other public health records currently do not always capture detailed information about the types of firearms used in shootings, including whether they might have been PMFs.   

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2024. 24p

By Gergely Hideg

The household firearms possession rate in Ukraine has been stable since the 2022 Russian invasion. At that time, 6 percent of households reported possessing firearms, which is similar to the 5.6 per cent that did so in a more recent survey carried out at the end of 2023. In fact, in the sampled households the aggregate number of firearms kept at home decreased by 15 per cent during the same period. • During this period, crime victimization levels were only slightly above pre-2022 levels; however, when crimes occur, firearms are increasingly more likely to be used. In late 2023, 11 per cent of all victims said they encountered a firearm during the crime incidents they experienced during the previous 12 months, up from 6 per cent a year earlier. Findings from the latest survey reveal that at the end of 2023, nearly four out of ten firearm owning households were unaware of the Unified Register of Weapons (39 per cent), which was launched in June 2023.  About three-quarters (74 per cent) of respondents whose households owned firearms and knew about the register said all their weapons were registered. Among all survey respondents who reported firearms possession at home, however, only 45 per cent indicated that their firearms were registered. • The war is resulting in an increase in the population of soldiers and veterans, who as a whole tend to adopt distinct attitudes towards firearm ownership. For instance, 31 percent of respondents with combat experience (pre- or post-2022) reported a firearm at their home and 18 per cent declared owning a firearm personally— compared with only about 6 and 3 per cent, respectively, for the general population

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2024. 11p. 

By Eugenio Weigend Vargas, Michelle Degli Esposti, Stephen Hargarten, Laura Vargas and Jason E. Goldstick

Background

Globally, Mexico is one of six countries with the highest level of firearm mortality. While previous studies have examined firearm mortality in Mexico before 2015, increases in violence since then highlight the need for an updated analysis. In this study, we examined changes in firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022 and described these deaths by key demographic groups, incident location, and state of occurrence. Data came from Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI), a federal agency that collects and reports national population data. We used descriptive statistics to analyze rates, proportions, and percentage changes in firearm mortality, and we displayed temporal trends using time plots and special trends using maps.

Results

Firearm deaths increased in Mexico from 2015 to 2018 but slightly decreased from 2018 to 2022. Homicides presented the highest increase and the highest proportion of firearm-related deaths from 2015 to 2022. Victims were primarily males but rates among women increased at a higher proportion (99.5% vs 53.5%). One third of victims were 20–29y but rates among children and adolescents (10–9y) increased at a higher proportion. Most firearm-related deaths occurred in streets or public spaces but the percentage of incidents occurring in households have increased. State-level rates and percentage changes varied significantly. States with higher rates of firearm mortality coincide with those involving conflict among organized criminal organizations.

Conclusion

Firearm mortality in Mexico is a major public health burden. The epidemiology of firearm-related deaths in Mexico varies by intent, demographics, location, and states. To mitigate this challenge, multiple solutions are required.

Introduction

Previous studies have documented increases in firearm mortality in Mexico from 1990 to 2015 (Dare et al. 2019). Reports from nonprofit organizations and news outlets indicate further increases since 2015, (particularly firearm homicides associated with organized crime) (Calderon et al. 2020), but comprehensive characterization of those trends is lacking. Organized criminal groups continue to operate in Mexico and roughly 213 k firearms are trafficked from the US every year (McDougal et al. 2014). In this regard, further increases in firearm mortality would threaten the future economy and health of Mexico (Peters et al. 2020; Aburto et al. 2016), and yet the lack of precise epidemiological information limits the ability to address this growing national problem with evidence-based programs and policies. In this analysis, we document changes in firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022 and describe these deaths by key demographic groups (e.g., sex, age, and urbanicity), incident location (e.g., households or public spaces) and states where they occurred.

Methods

Data on causes of death were collected from Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI), a national vital statistic database that has previously been used to examine firearm mortality in Mexico (Dare et al. 2019; Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía 2023a). INEGI collects annual mortality data and provides information on year of occurrence (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía 2023b). We merged datasets from 2015 to 2022. We excluded deaths that occurred/registered before 2015 and those where year of occurrence was unknown (n = 432), as well as deaths that occurred outside of Mexico (n = 2).

In line with previous studies (Degli Esposti et al. 2023; Cunningham et al. 2018), we identified firearm deaths using the International Classification of Disease (ICD-10) codes for firearm homicide (X93–X95 and U01.4), firearm suicide (X72–X74), unintentional firearm deaths (W32–W34), and firearm deaths of undetermined intent (Y22–Y24). Firearm deaths were further disaggregated by sex and age group (< 10y; 10–19y; 20–29y; 30–39; 40–49y; 50–59y; 60–69y; 70y+) and geographic information (urbanicity, incident location, state of occurrence). Urbanicity was defined using INEGI’s predetermined categories of urbanicity (urban and rural). Similarly, incident location was defined using INEGI’s eight predetermined categories of where deaths occurred (household, school or office, sport fields, streets or public spaces, commercial areas, industrial areas, farms/ranches, and other).

We used descriptive statistics to examine pooled 2015–2022 rates, annual rates for 2015 and 2022 separately, as well as percentage changes (in rates) from 2015 to 2022 across categories of intent, sex, age groups, and state of occurrence. To obtain rates, we used population estimates (by year, sex, age group, and state) provided by Mexico’s Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO) (Consejo Nacional de Población 2024). We also examined the percentage of firearm related deaths within categories defined by urbanicity, location, intent, and demographics. We displayed these percentages for 2015, 2022, and the total pooled 2015–2022 period.

Results

We examined 188,397 firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022. Rates of firearm-related deaths increased by 88.2% from 2015 to 2018 and decreased by 16.7% from 2018 to 2022 (Fig. 1). Homicide accounted for 92.2% of firearm deaths (Table 1) during this period and experienced the highest percentage increase (62.7%) from 2015 (10.37 per 100 k) to 2022 (16.87 per 100 k). Rates of undetermined firearm-related deaths and unintentional shootings also increased during this period (Table 1), while firearm suicide decreased by 23.4% (from 0.47 per 100 k in 2015 to 0.36 per 100 k in 2022).

Injury Epidemiology; 2024

By Chelsa Kenney

Why GAO Did This Study The U.S. Southwest Border Counternarcotics Strategy: 2020 identified the trafficking of firearms from the U.S. into Mexico as a threat to the safety and security of both countries. The Mexican government has estimated that 200,000 firearms are smuggled from the United States each year. GAO was asked to report on U.S. efforts to counter firearms trafficking to Mexico. This report examines (1) the extent of U.S. agencies’ knowledge about firearms trafficking to Mexico and (2) U.S. agencies’ efforts to disrupt this trafficking and the extent to which they have assessed those efforts. GAO reviewed firearms tracing data, related analysis, and program information for fiscal years 2014 through 2020. GAO also interviewed U.S. and Mexican officials. This is a public version of a sensitive report that GAO issued in December 2020. What GAO Recommends GAO is making eight recommendations, including recommending that ATF and ICE analyze additional information about the trafficking of U.S.-sourced firearms to Mexico and that ATF, ICE, CBP, and State develop performance measures to assess the results of their efforts to disrupt this trafficking. The agencies concurred with GAO’s recommendations.   

Washington, DC: United States Government Accountability Office , 2021. 56p.

By Suzanne G. McLone, John R. Pamplin II, Jaii D. Pappu, Jaimie L. Gradus1 and Jonathan S. Jay

Background Firearm homicide and opioid overdoses were already leading causes of death in the U.S. before both problems surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. Firearm violence, overdoses, and COVID-19 have all disproportionately harmed communities that are socially and economically marginalized, but the co-occurrence of these problems in the same communities has received little attention. To describe the co-occurrence of firearm homicides and opioid overdose deaths with COVID-19 mortality we used 2017–2021 medical examiner’s data from Chicago, IL. Deaths were assigned to zip codes based on descendants' residence. We stratified zip codes into quartiles by COVID-19 mortality rate, then compared firearm homicide and fatal opioid overdose rates by COVID-19 quartile. Findings Throughout the study period, firearm homicide and opioid overdose rates were highest in the highest COVID-19 mortality quartile and lowest in the lowest COVID-19 mortality quartile. Increases in firearm homicide and opioid overdose were observed across all COVID-19 mortality quartiles. Conclusions High co-occurrence of these deaths at the community level call for addressing the systemic forces that made them most vulnerable before the pandemic. Such strategies should consider the environments where people reside, not only where fatal injuries occur. 

Injury Epidemiology 11:34: 2024.

By Jason Theis,  Katherine Hoops, Marisa Booty,  Paul Nestadt, Cassandra Crifasi

Introduction: In the United States, firearm suicide represents a major cause of preventable, premature death among veterans. The purpose of this systematic review was to characterize the body of literature on veteran firearm suicide and identify areas for future research, which may facilitate the development of firearm suicide interventions in Veterans Health Administration (VHA) and non–Veterans Health Administration clinical settings.

Materials and Methods: All randomized controlled trials, quasi-experimental, naturalistic, observational, and case study designs published between January 1, 1990, and February 21, 2019, were included in our review. Following title and abstract review, 65 papers were included in our full-text review and 37 studies were included in our analysis. We based our approach on a modification of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis guidelines. Studies were grouped into broad, non-mutually exclusive categories: (1) heterogeneity of datasets and veteran status determination for inclusion, (2) service histories, (3) firearm ownership, storage, behaviors, and risk perceptions, (4) patient and clinician attitudes toward firearm restriction interventions, (5) firearm suicide risk factors by study population, and (6) assessments of clinical firearm interventions.

Results: This body of literature consists predominately of cross-sectional studies with mixed definitions and validation of veteran status, which revealed a high concordance of increased risk of firearm suicide compared with nonveterans. Veterans have higher rates of firearm ownership than the general population, primarily citing personal protection as the reason for gun ownership. Veterans often exhibit risky firearm usage and storage behaviors but tend to favor measures that limit access to firearms by at-risk individuals. Despite this, there remains persistent hesitation among clinicians to screen and counsel veterans on firearm safety.

Conclusions: This systematic review highlights an urgent need to produce higher quality evidence and new data with standard definitions that are critical to inform clinical practice and enhance public health measures to reduce firearm suicide among veterans

Military Medicine, Volume 186, Issue 5-6, May-June 2021, Pages e525–e536,

By Nicole M. Smith, Kady Seguin, U. Mete Saka, Sebnem Duzgun, Ashley Smith-Roberts, David Soud, Jenna White

Illicit gold flows constitute a major development challenge for governments and a social responsibility challenge for many industries along gold supply chains, including gold refiners and jewelry retailers. This paper highlights aspects of gold supply chains that lack transparency and may indicate junctures where illicit activities are taking place, resulting in a loss of tax and customs revenues. Using Peru and Kenya as case study countries, we draw from United Nations Comtrade data and qualitative data from field research to examine the magnitude of the gold trade, the forms in which gold is traded, discrepancies in reported trade data, and key trade partners for each country. We suggest that certain portions of gold supply chains should be given more attention, some types of gold exports and imports present greater traceability challenges than others, and some countries play a much more significant role in the global gold trade. We propose areas where further investigations may be warranted to ensure more transparent and responsible gold supply chains.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 42–59. 2024

By Eva Veldhuizen Ochodničanová, Alicia Heys

Despite the link between conflict and human trafficking having been globally recognized, academic inquiry investigating how the two interact continues to be limited. Given the recency of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation in February 2022, this lack of literature is even more pronounced in understanding how the risks of trafficking are developing in the current context. This paper examines extant academic literature to explore what is already known about the relationship between conflict and human trafficking, situating this within the theoretical framework of routine activity theory (RAT). It analyses governmental and non-governmental organization reports emerging from Ukraine to contextualize the risk that is specific to those affected by the war. The paper identifies four key drivers of risk facing those in, or fleeing, Ukraine, which can heighten their vulnerability to human trafficking, before offering a novel and innovative typology of the ways that human trafficking can manifest as a result of conflict. The typology gives consideration to the direct and indirect links between conflict and trafficking, the geographical spaces in which trafficking can occur, and the specific forms that exploitation can take. By situating the paper within RAT and contextualizing it with evidence from the war in Ukraine, the findings of this paper provide both theoretical and empirical insights that help to expand existing knowledge on how conflict situations can increase the risk of THB.

  Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(2): pp. 26–41.2024   

By Jessica H. Beard , Shannon Trombley, Tia Walker, Leah Roberts3, Laura Partain4, Jim MacMillan5 and Jennifer Midberry

Background: Firearm violence is an intensifying public health problem in the United States. News reports shape the way the public and policymakers understand and respond to health threats, including firearm violence. To better understand how firearm violence is communicated to the public, we aimed to determine the extent to which firearm violence is framed as a public health problem on television news and to measure harmful news content as identified by firearm-injured people.

Methods: This is a quantitative content analysis of Philadelphia local television news stories about firearm violence using a database of 7,497 clips. We compiled a stratified sample of clips aired on two randomly selected days/months from January to June 2021 from the database (n = 192 clips). We created a codebook to measure public health frame elements and to assign a harmful content score for each story and then coded the clips. Characteristics of stories containing episodic frames that focus on single shooting events were compared to clips with thematic frames that include a broader social context for violence.

Results: Most clips employed episodic frames (79.2%), presented law enforcement officials as primary narrators (50.5%), and included police imagery (79.2%). A total of 433 firearm-injured people were mentioned, with a mean of 2.8 individuals shot included in each story. Most of the firearm-injured people featured in the clips (67.4%) had no personal information presented apart from age and/or gender. The majority of clips (84.4%) contained at least one harmful content element. The mean harmful content score/clip was 2.6. Public health frame elements, including epidemiologic context, root causes, public health narrators and visuals, and solutions were missing from most clips. Thematic stories contained significantly more public health frame elements and less harmful content compared to episodic stories.

Conclusions: Local television news produces limited public health coverage of firearm violence, and harmful content is common. This reporting likely compounds trauma experienced by firearm-injured people and could impede support for effective public health responses to firearm violence. Journalists should work to minimize harmful news content and adopt a public health approach to reporting on firearm violence.

Beard et al. BMC Public Health, 2024.