By Megan K. McBride, Zack Gold, Pamela G. Faber, and Kaia Haney With contributions by William Rosenau and Alexander Powell

Concern about extremism in the military did not begin with the January 6 insurrection on the US Capitol, but media reporting on the issue increased in the wake of the attack, which ensured the kind of sustained attention that is often necessary to compel action. On February 5, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin directed a force-wide stand-down to address the problem. He also asked the Countering Extremism Working Group to update the Department of Defense (DOD) definition of extremist activities, update training modules so that transitioning servicemembers are aware that they might be targeted for recruitment by extremist organizations, and review the screening questions for new recruits in order to solicit information about extremist behavior. As part of a CNA-initiated project to examine past efforts to address extremism in the US military, we identified a number of interesting parallels between this issue and the problem of sexual harassment and sexual assault. The purpose of this paper is to describe and explain these parallels, and to identify lessons that DOD should learn from its past experiences trying to address sexual harassment and assault in the context of its current challenge with racial extremism. Critically, we are not arguing that DOD’s approach to sexual harassment and sexual assault has been successful. Nor are we arguing that sexual harassment, sexual assault, and racial extremism are equivalent or comparable violations. Our argument is more modest: DOD’s approach to sexual harassment and sexual assault contains elements that are relevant to the problem of racial extremism and could provide a foundation on which to identify both helpful and unhelpful ways of approaching this issue.

Arlington, VA: CNA, 2021. 72p.

By Pamela G. Faber, Megan K. McBride, Sarah Fusco, and Cheryl B. Rosenblum

The unfolding COVID-19 pandemic has shed light on the wide-ranging disruption that nontraditional threats such as pandemics can have on the US economy, military, diplomatic corps, and national security apparatus. The US, its partners, and its competitors have tried to curb the spread of the virus by closing schools, workplaces, social gathering spots, and borders. Militaries have scaled back operations, postponed exercises, and curtailed engagements. Economic futures remain uncertain. Low‑income workers in industrialized countries have been disproportionately affected by rolling shutdowns and stay-at-home orders, and wealth inequality is increasing. Social interactions, such as religious gatherings, family celebrations, athletic activities, and concerts have been forced online or suspended. For many, extended periods of isolation and loneliness are a hidden side effect of the virus, with experts predicting a mental health crisis to come. Although the vaccine rollout is underway in many parts of the world, it will be many more months—possibly years—before the entire global population is vaccinated and a return to “normal” becomes possible. The pandemic, moreover, has affected both violent extremist organization (VEO) operations and US capacity to conduct counterterrorism (CT)  intelligence gathering, analysis, and activities. It has increased global instability—political, economic, and social—which will almost certainly benefit terrorist and extremist groups. Jihadi movements such as ISIS and far-right groups such as the Russian Imperial Movement thrive in environments of uncertainty and chaos. COVID-19 has contributed to instability and expanded opportunities for VEOs to recruit and operate. Accordingly, there has been an observable uptick in VEO activity in places such as sub-Saharan Africa, West Africa, Iraq, and Syria; in addition, movements such as ISIS and Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) have adjusted their rhetoric by claiming that the virus is divine punishment for unbelievers. In the US, citizen frustration with COVID-19 mitigation efforts drove (thwarted) attacks against public officials in New Mexico, a hospital in Missouri, and police headquarters in Orlando, Florida, and extremists have also encouraged followers to disrupt National Guard activities. In addition to COVID-related violence in the US, rising political unrest, including the January 6, 2021, storming of the US Capitol, has drawn attention to domestic security issues.

Arlington, VA: CNA, 2021. 26p.