By: W. C. Arthur

The 2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment (TCHA18) provides an evaluation of the likelihood and intensity (“how big and how often”) of the occurrence of tropical cyclone winds across the Australian region, covering mainland Australia, islands and adjacent waters. It is a probabilistic evaluation of the expected maximum gust wind speeds with a range of annual exceedance probabilities (or conversely, average recurrence intervals). The assessment is derived using a statistical-parametric model developed by Geoscience Australia called the Tropical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM). Maximum 0.2-second duration, 10-metre above ground wind speeds are calculated for Standard Australia's AS/NZS 1170.2 (2011) terrain category 2 (0.02 m roughness length) surface conditions, over a 0.02 degree grid across Australia. Maps of average recurrence interval (ARI) wind speeds of 100- and 500-year ARI are provided in a separate product suite.

Geoscience Australia, Canberra. http://dx.doi.org/10.11636/Record.2018.040

By Rachel Burgin and Jacqui Tassone

This report presents the findings of a a study that aimed to understand the reasons for the high rate of attrition of reported sexual offences in the Australian Capital Territory. Through analysis of 389 police case reports, interviews with 33 victim-survivors and a review of Australian Federal Police and ACT Policing policy and procedural documents, the review found that not only are sexual offences rarely charged in the ACT, sexual offences are rarely investigated.

Failure to investigate sexual offences was driven by two key factors:

• impact of rape myths on police decision-making

• lack of understanding of the laws relating to sexual offences and the test to charge.

The report makes 17 recommendations to improve responses to sexual offences in the ACT and improve the experiences of victim-survivors in reporting to police. The findings provide insight for police forces across Australia to move towards a trauma-informed approach to policing sexual offences.

Hawthorn, VIC: Swinburne University of Technology, 2024. 129p.

By Anthony Morgan, Timothy Cubitt and Christopher Dowling

In this paper we explore the prevalence and patterns of recorded domestic violence offending among outlaw motorcycle gang (OMCG) members in New South Wales. We then compare domestic violence offending among a sample of OMCG members and other male offenders who committed their first recorded offence in the same year.

Forty percent of OMCG members had been proceeded against for a domestic violence offence in the last 10 years. OMCG members were twice as likely to have been proceeded against for domestic violence offences as the wider male offending population. Domestic violence offending by OMCG members was more harmful and charges were less likely to result in a guilty outcome.

OMCG members have a greater propensity for violence and this includes domestic violence. This research has implications for law enforcement and domestic violence support services.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 670. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2023. 17p.

By Jason Payne, Rick Brown and Roderic Broadhurst

In this study the arrest records of the 1984 and 1994 NSW birth cohorts were obtained using a data matching process facilitated by the NSW Registry of Births Deaths and Marriages and the NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR). The aim of this research is to examine the possible causes and consequences of the Australian crime decline through a longitudinal and developmental criminological lens. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first such comparative analysis of longitudinal data aimed at exploring the crime decline, and builds on the recent, albeit it aggregated and cross-sectional, analysis both in Australia (Weatherburn et al. 2014) and overseas (Farrell et al. 2015). Overall, the age-graded longitudinal experiences of the more recent of the two cohorts (born in 1994) confirm the declines previously identified by Weatherburn and Holmes (2013). Specifically, the results presented in this study suggest that as a proportion of each birth cohort the number of young people having contact with the criminal justice system by their 21st birthday had almost halved; down from 9.5 percent for the 1984 birth cohort to 4.8 percent for the 1994 birth cohort. But for the very young ages of between 10 and 13 years, the annualised prevalence of criminal justice contact was markedly lower for those born in 1994, although the analysis shows that these disparities are greatest in the late teenage and early adulthood years. Importantly, the otherwise non-existent or modest differences in the younger years suggests that for both cohorts the emergence and prevalence of ‘early onset’ offending was not dissimilar. Instead, the so-called crime decline appears to have been the result of fewer young people having contact with the criminal justice system as teenagers and young adults.

Canberra: Australian National University, 2018. 68p.