By David Weisburd, Clair V. Uding, Kiseong Kuen, Beidi Dong

Criminologists have long known that crime is highly concentrated—in most cities, approximately 50% of crime happens on only 5% of streets. As a result, many cities have effectively reduced crime by concentrating police resources in extremely high-crime “hot-spots.” Despite calls for defunding the police, policing is necessary for public safety on hot-spot streets, and people who live on these streets recognize that. Indeed, in one survey in Phoenix, Arizona, the majority of residents of hot-spots streets said they wanted the amount of police on their block to be increased. But ultimately, the bedrock of social control of crime is not the police, but citizens who exercise informal social control. The practice of community policing—which emphasizes building relationships with members of the community and allowing them to have a voice in defining which problems police should focus on—attempts to leverage this fact to enhance public safety. However, it is often assumed that high-crime hot spots are simply so chaotic and disordered that the residents are incapable of playing a key role in crime prevention.

We examined this assumption through a multiyear study of more than 300 hot-spot streets in Baltimore, Maryland (all of which were in the top 3% in rates of violent or drug crime in the city), as well as almost 50 “cold” streets, which had little to no crime, and 100 “cool” streets, which fell in the middle. We found that common assumptions about hot spots—which we shared at the outset—are not accurate. Residents of hot-spot streets in Baltimore have strong social and network ties with their neighbors, and they exercise meaningful levels of informal social control. Even on the most crime ridden blocks, there is potential for collaboration between residents and police. Our findings suggest that it is time to think about how both informal and formal social control can work interactively to reduce crime. Hot-spots policing is an important first step, because the level of danger in these places can simply make it too dangerous for residents to exercise the type of informal social control that they would like. But residents of these streets, contrary to stereotypes of academics, policymakers, and practitioners, form an important resource for reducing crime on these streets through informal social control.

New York: The Manhattan Institute, 2024. 18p,

BY Kirsten Eddy, Michael Lipka, Katerina Eva Matsa, Naomi Forman-Katz, Sarah Naseer, Christopher St. Aubin and Elisa Shearer

The more news about crime that Americans receive, the more likely they are to be concerned, angry or feel personally at risk, but large numbers of people are dissatisfied with the local crime news they get and just as many people get information about crime trends from people they know as from local news outlets, a new Pew Research Center report from the Pew-Knight Initiative has found.

The report, based on a survey in January of more than 5,000 randomly selected adults, found there is little difference between Republicans and Democrats in how they consume local crime information and how concerned they are about it, but Republicans are more likely than Democrats to view violent crime as a very big problem for the country as a whole, the study found.

While most respondents expressed interest in learning the details of crimes, tips about how to stay safe, and broader patterns in local crime, few of those who were interested said it is easy to find news and information about each topic

Washington, DC: Pew Research Center 2024, 47p.

By U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs

The First Step Act of 2018 (FSA) mandated the development and implementation of a risk and needs assessment system in the Federal Bureau of Prisons (FBOP). The FSA also required that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) review, validate, and publicly release the risk and needs assessment system on an annual basis. The National Institute of Justice (NIJ) contracted with Dr. Rhys Hester and Dr. Ryan Labrecque as consultants for the annual review and revalidation of the Prisoner Assessment Tool Targeting Estimated Risk and Needs (PATTERN). This document is the fourth review and revalidation report, following USDOJ (2021a), USDOJ (2021b), and USDOJ (2023). The previous review and revalidation reports included FBOP release cohorts from fiscal year (FY) 2009 through FY 2018. The current report analyzes a subsequent cohort of FY 2019 FBOP releasees and evaluates PATTERN for its predictive accuracy, dynamic validity, and racial and ethnic neutrality, as mandated by the FSA. This study analyzes one-, two-, and three-year recidivism outcomes, assesses what proportions of change in risk scores and levels are influenced by the current age item, and provides additional descriptive information on individual items, risk scores and levels, and outcomes by race and ethnic group. Finally, this report provides updates on the actions taken by NIJ and DOJ in the past year and the ongoing efforts to review and improve PATTERN. The FY 2019 cohort study finds that PATTERN remains a strong and valid predictor of general and violent recidivism at the one-, two-, and three-year follow-up periods, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistics ranging from .745 to .776. Comparisons of recidivism rates by risk level category (RLC) and predictive value analyses by risk level grouping also continue to indicate that such risk level designations provide meaningful distinctions of recidivism risk. In addition, individuals can change their risk scores and levels during confinement beyond mere age effects. Those who reduced their RLC from first to last assessment were shown to have the lowest recidivism rates, followed by those who maintained the same risk level and those with a higher risk level, respectively. While the findings continue to indicate PATTERN’s accuracy across the five racial and ethnic groups analyzed, there remains evidence that the instruments predict differently across those groups, including overprediction of risk of Black, Hispanic, and Asian males and females, relative to White individuals, on the general recidivism tools.

Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs 2024. 36p.

By Janique Kroese, Wim Bernasco, Aart C. Liefbroer, Jan Rouwendal

Studies investigating the role of single-parent families in adolescent delinquency have seldom differentiated between types of single-parent families. Furthermore, they have typically assumed that parental disruption is a discrete event marking an abrupt change between dual-parenthood and single-parenthood. Using Dutch longitudinal population register data, we estimated fixed-effects panel models to assess (1) whether the event of parental disruption, either by parental separation or by parental death, increases subsequent adolescent delinquency and (2) whether parental disruption, either by parental separation or by parental death, has anticipatory, immediate, or delayed effects on adolescent delinquency. Our results showed that both parental separation and parental death seem to boost adolescent delinquency, and we found no difference between these types of single-parent families. However, when distinguishing between anticipatory, short-term, and long-term effects, we found a short-term increase in adolescent delinquency after a parental separation and an anticipatory reduction in adolescent delinquency before a parental death. Future research should pay more attention to diversity in the composition of single parent families, as well as to the anticipatory, short-term, and long-term consequences.

Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology (2024) 10:288–308

By Miguel Basto-Pereira, David P. Farrington, Laura Maciel

This work aims to investigate the role of sequences of risk factors from childhood to young adulthood in predicting subsequent criminal convictions. This study uses the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) dataset, a prospective longitudinal research study that followed 411 males from South London from the age of 8 to 61 years. Temporal sequences of risk factors at ages 8–10, 12–14, and 16–18 were analyzed as predictors of subsequent criminal convictions up to the age of 61. Risk factors related to poverty, parenting problems, and children’s risk-taking predisposition at ages 8–10 emerged as prevalent starting points for the most highly predictive developmental sequences leading to convictions. The risk of a criminal conviction significantly increased if these risk factors were followed by low IQ scores or association with delinquent friends at ages 12–14, and by school and professional problems or drug addiction during late adolescence (ages 16–18). At each developmental stage, specific risk factors intricately combine to form chains of risk during development, subsequently predicting criminal convictions. A trajectory-of-risk-need-responsivity approach that identifies and breaks chains of risk factors that generate and enhance favorable conditions for criminal convictions is discussed.

Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology (2024) 10:242–264

By Corrie Williams, Tara Renae McGee, Shannon Walding, Christine E. W. Bond

While conduct problem behaviour initiated in early childhood often escalates in frequency and seriousness through adolescence, a notable deceleration is typically seen by mid-adolescence. It has been hypothesised that prosocial behaviour, characterised by acts like sharing and comforting, may play a role in this deceleration. However, there is a distinct gap in the current literature when it comes to understanding the temporal dynamics between the acceleration of prosocial behaviours and the deceleration of conduct problem behaviour. This study seeks to bridge this gap. Using a General Cross-Lagged Panel Model (GCLM) and data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC), we investigated temporal dynamics and sequence of how the acceleration of prosocial behaviour influences the deceleration of conduct problem behaviour between ages 4 and 15. Results indicate that increases in prosocial behaviour facilitate the deceleration of conduct problem behaviour, with increases in prosocial behaviour preceding decreases in conduct problem behaviour. Further, we show a cumulative effect of increases in prosocial behaviour on decreases in conduct problem behaviour over time. This knowledge provides a foundation for understanding how timely prevention and intervention strategies that include the mechanisms for increasing prosocial behaviour may interrupt the con duct problem behaviour trajectories of children and adolescents.

Journal of Developmental and Life-Course Criminology (2024) 10:169–192

By The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS),

Substance use and mental health issues have significant impacts on individuals, families, communities, and societies. The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), conducted annually by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), provides nationally representative data on the use of tobacco, alcohol, and other substances including illicit drugs; substance use disorders; receipt of substance use treatment; mental health issues; and receipt of mental health treatment among the civilian, noninstitutionalized population aged 12 or older in the United States. NSDUH estimates allow researchers, clinicians, policymakers, and the general public to better understand and improve the nation’s behavioral health. SAMHSA is steadfast in its efforts to advance the health of the nation while also promoting equity. Therefore, this report, based on 2023 NSDUH data, contains findings on key substance use and mental health indicators in the United States by race or ethnicity. The 2021 to 2023 NSDUHs used multimode data collection, in which respondents completed the survey in person or via the web. Methodological investigations led to the conclusion that estimates based on multimode data collection in 2021 and subsequent years are not comparable with estimates from 2020 or prior years. Although estimates from 2021 to 2023 can be compared,6 this report presents NSDUH estimates from 2023 only. Results from the 2023 National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Detailed Tables show comprehensive estimates related to substance use and mental health for 2022 and 2023. The 2023 Companion Infographic Report: Results from the 2021, 2022, and 2023 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health shows comparisons of selected estimates from 2021 to 2023. Behavioral Health by Race and Ethnicity: Results from the 2021-2023 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health shows comparisons of selected estimates for racial or ethnic groups using pooled data from the 2021 to 2023 NSDUHs to increase the precision of estimates. Survey Background NSDUH is an annual survey sponsored by SAMHSA within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). NSDUH covers residents of households and people in noninstitutional group settings (e.g., shelters, boarding houses, college dormitories, migratory workers’ camps, halfway houses). The survey excludes people with no fixed address (e.g., people who are homeless and not in shelters), military personnel on active duty, and residents of institutional group settings, such as jails, nursing homes, mental health institutions, and long-term care hospitals.

Washington, DC: Center for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration.

Edited by Diana Maltz

In 1896, author Arthur Morrison gained notoriety for his bleak and violent ‘A Child of the Jago’, a slum novel that captured the desperate struggle to survive among London’s poorest. When a reviewer accused Morrison of exaggerating the depravity of the neighborhood on which the Jago was based, he incited the era’s most contentious public debate about the purpose of realism and the responsibilities of the novelist. In his self-defense and his wider body of work, Morrison demonstrated not only his investments as a formal artist but also his awareness of social questions. As the first critical essay collection on Arthur Morrison and the East End, this book assesses Morrison’s contributions to late-Victorian culture, especially discourses around English working-class life. Chapters evaluate Morrison in the context of Victorian criminality, child welfare, disability, housing, professionalism, and slum photography. Morrison’s works are also reexamined in the light of writings by Sir Walter Besant, Clementina Black, Charles Booth, Charles Dickens, George Gissing, and Margaret Harkness. This volume features an introduction and 11 chapters by preeminent and emerging scholars of the East End. They employ a variety of critical methodologies, drawing on their respective expertise in literature, history, art history, sociology, and geography. Critical Essays on Arthur Morrison and the East End throws fresh new light on this innovative novelist of poverty and urban life.

Abingdon, Oxon, UK: New York: Routledge, 2022.

By: Newson, Linda A and Minchin, Susie

Based on exceptionally rich private papers of Portuguese slave traders, this study provides unique insight into the diet, health, and medical care of slaves during their journey from Africa to Peru in the early seventeenth century.; Readership: All those interested in the history of the slave trade and slavery in both Africa and Spanish America, as well as the history of food and medicine in the early modern period.

Brill, 2007. 388p.

By  C.M. Hoeboer*, W.M. Kitselaar, J.F. Henrich, E.J. Miedzobrodzka, B. Wohlstetter, E. Giebels, G. Meynen, E.W. Kruisbergen, M. Kempes, M. Olff, C.H. de Kogel

COVID-19 caused a great burden on the healthcare system and led to lockdown measures across the globe. These measures are likely to influence crime rates, but a comprehensive overview on the impact of COVID-19 on crime rates is lacking. The aim of the current study was to systematically review evidence on the impact of COVID-19 measures on crime rates across the globe. We conducted a systematic search in several databases to identify eligible studies up until 6–12-2021. A total of 46 studies were identifed, reporting on 99 crime rates about robberies (n=12), property crime (n=15), drug crime (n=5), fraud (n=5), physical violence (n=15), sexual violence (n=11), homicides (n=12), cybercrime (n=3), domestic violence (n=3), intimate partner violence (n=14), and other crimes (n=4). Overall, studies showed that most types of crime temporarily declined during COVID-19 measures. Homicides and cybercrime were an exception to this rule and did not show significant changes following COVID-19 restrictions. Studies on domestic violence often found increased crime rates, and this was particularly true for studies based on call data rather than crime records. Studies on intimate partner violence reported mixed results. We found an immediate impact of COVID-19 restrictions on almost all crime rates except for homicides, cybercrimes and intimate partner violence.  

Published in American Journal of Criminal, Sociology, Political Science, Medicine November 2023

By Lin Liu, Jiayu Chang, Dongping Long, and Heng Liu

Existing research suggests that COVID-19 lockdowns tend to contribute to a decrease in overall urban crime rates. Most studies have compared pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods to lockdown periods in Western cities. Few have touched on the fine variations during lockdowns. Equally rare are intracity studies conducted in China. This study tested the relationship between violent crime and COVID-19 lockdown policies in ZG City in southern China. The distance from the isolation location to the nearest violent crime site, called “the nearest crime distance”, is a key variable in this study. Kernel density mapping and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test are used to compare the pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods to the lockdown period. Panel logistic regression is used to test the fine variations among different stages during the lockdown. The result found an overall decline in violent crime during the lockdown and a bounce-back post-lockdown. Violent crime moved away from the isolated location during the lockdown. This outward spread continued for the first two months after the lifting of the lockdown, suggesting a lasting effect of the lockdown policy. During the lockdown, weekly changes in COVID-19 risk ratings at the district level in ZG City also affected changes in the nearest crime distance. In particular, an increase in the risk rating increased that distance, and a drop in the risk rating decreased that distance. These findings add new results to the literature and could have policy implications for joint crime and pandemic prevention and control.

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec; 19(23): 15525.

By Amy E. Nivette, Renee Zahnow, Raul Aguilar, Andri Ahven, et al.

The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public spaces were predictive of larger declines in crime.

Nature Human Behaviour.2021.

By William Foote Whyte

Research Background: The study was supported by various fellowships and guided by experts from Harvard and the University of Chicago.

Cornerville's Social Structure: The district is highly organized withdistinct social groups, despite being perceived as chaotic by outsiders.

Methodology: The author used participant observation, immersing himself in the community to understand its dynamics.

Community Impact: The research aimed to help Cornerville, with significant contributions from local residents and key informants.

University of Chicago Press, 2012, 364 pages

By Luis J. Rodriguez

Author's Background: Luis J. Rodriguez shares his personal experiencesgrowing up in gang-infested neighborhoods in Los Angeles andChicago, highlighting the challenges and violence he faced.

Gang Life: The book delves into the structure and culture of gangs,including the initiation rituals, the sense of belonging, and the violentconflicts between rival groups.

Family Struggles: Rodriguez discusses the impact of gang life on hisfamily, particularly his efforts to prevent his son from following the samepath.

Redemption and Change: The narrative emphasizes the author'sjourney towards self-improvement and his attempts to break free fromthe cycle of violence through education and activism.

Simon and Schuster, 2005, 260 pages

By China Scherz,  George Mpanga, and Sarah Namirembe

Higher Powers draws on four years of collaborative fieldwork carried out with Ugandans working to reconstruct their lives after attempting to leave behind problematic alcohol use. Given the relatively recent introduction of biomedical ideas of alcoholism and addiction in Uganda, most of these people have used other therapeutic resources, including herbal aversion therapies, engagements with balubaale spirits, and forms of deliverance and spiritual warfare practiced in Pentecostal churches. While these methods are at times severe, they contain within them understandings of the self and practices of sociality that point away from models of addiction as a chronic relapsing brain disease and towards the possibility of release. Higher Powers offers a reconceptualization of addiction and recovery that may prove relevant well beyond Uganda.

Oakland, CA: University of California Press, 2024.  156p.

 By Vivian Miller

Peter Christian "Paddy" Barrie was a seasoned fraudster who transferred his horse doping and horse substitution skills from British to North American racetracks in the 1920s. His thoroughbred ringers were entered in elite races to guarantee winnings for syndicates and betting rings in the prohibition-era United States. This case study of a professional travelling criminal and the challenges he posed for the Pinkerton National Detective Agency in the early 1930s war on crime highlights both the importance of illegal betting to urban mobsters and the need for broader and more nuanced critiques of Depression-era organised crime activities and alliances.

Cambridge, UK: Journal of American Studies, 2021. 22p.

By Ben Grunwald and Jeffrey Fagan

In 2000, the Supreme Court held in Illinois v. Wardlow that a suspect’s presence in a “high-crime area” is relevant in determining whether an officer has reasonable suspicion to conduct an investigative stop. Despite the importance of the decision, the Court provided no guidance about what that standard means, and over fifteen years later, we still have no idea how police officers understand and apply it in practice. This Article conducts the first empirical analysis of Wardlow by examining data on over two million investigative stops conducted by the New York Police Department from 2007 to 2012. Our results suggest that Wardlow may have been wrongly decided. Specifically, we find evidence that officers often assess whether areas are high crime using a very broad geographic lens; that they call almost every block in the city high crime; that their assessments of whether an area is high crime are nearly uncorrelated with actual crime rates; that the suspect’s race predicts whether an officer calls an area high crime as well as the actual crime rate; that the racial composition of the area and the identity of the officer are stronger predictors of whether an officer calls an area high crime than the crime rate itself; and that stops are less or as likely to result in the detection of contraband when an officer invokes high-crime area as a basis of a stop. We conclude with several policy proposals for courts, police departments, and scholars to help address these problems in the doctrine.

California Law Review 345-404 (2019

By Yuhyeong Jang1 ·Raanju R. Sundararajan1 ·Wagner Barreto-Souza2 · Elizabeth Wheaton-Paramo

The article presents a robust quantitative approach for determining significant economic factors for sex trafficking in the United States. The aim is to study monthly counts of sex trafficking-related convictions and use a wide range of economic variables as covariates to investigate their effect on conviction counts. A count time series model is considered along with a regression setup to include economic time series as covariates (economic factors) to explain the counts on sex trafficking-related convictions. The statistical significance of these economic factors is investigated, and the significant factors are ranked based on appropriate model selection methods. The inclusion of time-lagged versions of the economic factor time series in the regression model is also explored. The authors’ findings indicate that economic factors relating to immigration policy, consumer price index and labor market regulations are the most significant in explaining sex trafficking convictions

Empirical Economics. 2024, 18pg

By Robert D. Crutchfield 

Are the unemployed more likely to commit crimes? Does having a job make one less likely to commit a crime? Criminologists have found that individuals who are marginalized from the labor market are more likely to commit crimes, and communities with more members who are marginal to the labor market have higher rates of crime. Yet, as Robert Crutchfield explains, contrary to popular expectations, unemployment has been found to be an inconsistent predictor of either individual criminality or collective crime rates. In Get a Job, Crutchfield offers a carefully nuanced understanding of the links among work, unemployment, and crime.

Crutchfield explains how people’s positioning in the labor market affects their participation in all kinds of crimes, from violent acts to profit-motivated offenses such as theft and drug trafficking. Crutchfield also draws on his first-hand knowledge of growing up in a poor, black neighborhood in Pittsburgh and later working on the streets as a parole officer, enabling him to develop a more complete understanding of how work and crime are related and both contribute to, and are a result of, social inequalities and disadvantage. Well-researched and informative, Get a Job tells a powerful story of one of the most troubling side effects of economic disparities in America.

New York; London: NYU Press, 2014. 303p.

By Mary Louise Frampton, Ian Haney Lopez, and Jonathan Simon

Since the 1970s, Americans have witnessed a pyrrhic war on crime, with sobering numbers at once chilling and cautionary. Our imprisoned population has increased five-fold, with a commensurate spike in fiscal costs that many now see as unsupportable into the future. As American society confronts a multitude of new challenges ranging from terrorism to the disappearance of middle-class jobs to global warming, the war on crime may be up for reconsideration for the first time in a generation or more. Relatively low crime rates indicate that the public mood may be swinging toward declaring victory and moving on.
However, to declare that the war is over is dangerous and inaccurate, and After the War on Crime reveals that the impact of this war reaches far beyond statistics; simply moving on is impossible. The war has been most devastating to those affected by increased rates and longer terms of incarceration, but its reach has also reshaped a sweeping range of social institutions, including law enforcement, politics, schooling, healthcare, and social welfare. The war has also profoundly altered conceptions of race and community.
It is time to consider the tasks reconstruction must tackle. To do so requires first a critical assessment of how this war has remade our society, and then creative thinking about how government, foundations, communities, and activists should respond. After the War on Crime accelerates this reassessment with original essays by a diverse, interdisciplinary group of scholars as well as policy professionals and community activists. The volume's immediate goal is to spark a fresh conversation about the war on crime and its consequences; its long-term aspiration is to develop a clear understanding of how we got here and of where we should go.

New York; London: NYU Press, 2008.256p