By Richard Rosenfeld and Ernesto Lopez:   National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice

This study is the fifth in a series of reports exploring pandemic-related crime changes for the National Commission on COVID-19 and Criminal Justice. Updating that earlier work, this analysis reveals both increases and decreases in crime rates in a sample of United States cities during the first quarter of 2021 compared with the first quarter of 2020. Homicides, aggravated and gun assaults, and motor vehicle thefts increased, while residential burglaries, nonresidential burglaries, larcenies, and drug offenses fell. The timing of the declines in burglaries, larcenies, and drug crimes coincided with the stay-at-home mandates and business closings that occurred in response to the pandemic. Quarantines reduced residential burglary. When businesses are closed, there is no shoplifting. Selling drugs on the street is more difficult when there are fewer people on the street, and drug arrests fall when police reduce drug enforcement because they have prioritized other activities. Our findings show that there was a 26% increase in motor vehicle thefts in the first quarter of 2021 compared to the same period in the previous year, even as other property crimes declined. Motor vehicle thefts may have risen during the pandemic as more people left their vehicles unattended at home rather than in secure parking facilities at work.  

Washington, DC: Council on Criminal Justice, 2021. 

By The International Crisis Group

Criminal groups in Mexico and the Northern Triangle of Central America (El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras) have been quick to absorb the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic and seize new opportunities provided by lockdowns, distracted states and immiserated citizens. At first, trade disruptions and movement restrictions forced some criminal outfits to slow illicit activities. But the lull has not lasted. Exchange of illicit goods already appears to be swinging back to normal, while extortion rackets are resurging. As the region’s recent history shows, quick fixes to rein in organised crime and official corruption are very likely to be counterproductive. Instead, governments should concentrate their limited resources to aid the most violent regions and vulnerable people, ideally through regional programs to curb impunity and create alternatives to criminal conduct. After months of lockdowns of varying severity, with disease transmission still uncontrolled and poised to spike again, the threat of rising crime across the region is manifest. Mexico has been afflicted for years by transnational criminal organisations that feed off a lack of economic opportunity and corruption in the state and security forces. The new force in the underworld, the Jalisco Cartel New Generation, has bared its teeth during the pandemic in fights for control of illicit markets such as drug trafficking and “taxing” legal commodities. It has also displayed its paramilitary might in the media. Myriad criminal groups have claimed to be lifelines for local people, largely in bids to widen their support base. Across the north of Central…..

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  America, street gangs that have lorded it over their economically struggling strongholds for years have also found ways to take advantage of the pandemic. After the outbreak, they advertised themselves as champions of communities under lockdown, handing out food baskets and forgiving protection payments. Due to COVID-19 movement restrictions, violence fell briefly in Honduras and Guatemala. But it is now back to or above pre-pandemic levels, while extortion rackets in both countries appear set to intensify. El Salvador is an outlier in that murder rates have stayed close to historical lows for reasons that remain disputed. The government says its security plan has kept violent gangs at bay, while Crisis Group has suggested that gang and government leaders may have struck an informal agreement to scale back violence. But, if such a pact exists, neither side has acknowledged it in public, and sudden spates of killings underline that gangs’ commitment to peace is far from robust. Behind concerns about deteriorating security in Mexico and northern Central America is the realisation that the pandemic (and counter-measures) will worsen the economic and institutional ills underlying the crime wave. The incidence of COVID-19 varies from country to country, but it is hard to imagine that any will avoid a negative impact on livelihoods, public services and the popular mood. Mexico ranks fourth worldwide with its officially reported death toll of over 90,000 – which the government admits is an undercount – while rates of infection in northern Central America stand around the Latin American average. Nonetheless, all four countries are now facing one of the most severe economic contractions in decades, made worse in Central America by the recent devastation left by Hurricane ETA. Expected falls in 2020 GDP, reaching close to 10 per cent in Mexico and El Salvador and causing unemployment to soar across the region, are set to reverse advances in reducing inequality and poverty, weaken public services in poor areas, intensify criminal rivalries and sharpen officials’ motives for consorting with illicit business. 

Brussels:  International Crisis Group, 2020. 37p.

By Larrea-Schiavon, Silvana, Lina López-Lalinde, Isabel Vieitez Martínez, Ricardo Regules, Juan Pablo Gutiérrez, René Nevárez, Cristina Mac Gregor, Pablo López, Nicole Haberland, and Thoai Ngô

This report presents findings from the baseline survey of the Violence Outcomes in COVID-19 Era Study (VOCES-19). The study, conducted by Population Council Mexico in collaboration with the National Institute of Youth and the National Center for Gender Equity and Reproductive Health aims to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying mitigation measures on the experience and perception of violence among 15–24-year-olds living in Mexico, as well as its effects on other social, economic, and health, related outcomes. The primary objectives for this first survey round were to gather baseline information on several outcomes of interest, assess differential effects by gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status, and establish a cohort of adolescents and young adults to measure the impact of the pandemic on young people in Mexico over time.

Mexico: Population Council, 2021. 153p.

By EUROPOL

The use of cryptocurrency as part of criminal schemes is increasing and the uptake of this payment medium accelerating. However, the overall number and value of cryptocurrency transactions related to criminal activities still represents only a limited share of the criminal economy when compared to cash and other forms of transactions. A range of constraints are related to the use of cryptocurrencies, with high volatility likely a major factor in criminals’ reluctance to use cryptocurrencies for long term investments. Recent years have seen cryptocurrency increasingly used as part of criminal activities and to launder criminal proceeds. Criminals have also become more sophisticated in their use of cryptocurrencies. In addition to using cryptocurrencies to obfuscate money flows as part of increasingly complex money laundering schemes, cryptocurrencies are increasingly used by criminals as a means of payment or as an investment fraud currency. The number of cases involving cryptocurrencies for the financing of terrorism remains limited. The criminal use of cryptocurrency is no longer primarily confined to cybercrime activities, but now relates to all types of crime that require the transmission of monetary value. However, the scale and share of the illicit use of cryptocurrencies as part of criminal activities is difficult to estimate. Criminals and criminal networks involved in serious and organised crime also continue to rely on traditional fiat money and transactions to a large degree, in addition to emerging value transfer opportunities.    

The Hague: EUROPOL, 2022. 20p.

By Matthew Simonson, Matthew Lacombe, Jon Green, and James Druckman

The last decade has given rise to substantial concern about democratic backsliding in the U.S. Manifestations include decreased trust in government, conspiratorial beliefs, contentious protests, and support for political violence. Surprisingly, prior work has not explored how these attitudes and behaviors relate to gun-buying, an action that provides people with the means to challenge the state. The researchers address this topic by focusing on individuals who took part in the unprecedented gun buying surge during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a survey with over 50,000 respondents, they find that— relative to other Americans—pandemic gun buyers are more likely to distrust government, believe in conspiracies, protest, and support political violence. Moreover, the authors find that gun buyers who hold anti-government views and attend protests are especially likely to say they bought guns for political reasons. The researchers’ findings highlight a crucial dynamic underlying the recent spike in gun sales with consequences for American democracy.

Evanston, IL: Northwestern University, Institute for Policy Research, 2022. 62p.

By The City of Chicago

We know a great deal about the nature of violence in Chicago. An overwhelming number of homicides in the city are gun-related and victims are disproportionately African American and Latinx males. Most shootings and homicides happen outdoors in public spaces. In 2019, the median age of homicide victims was 271, and 50 percent of the city’s shooting victimizations occurred within 10 community areas that comprise 15 percent of the city’s population. These neighborhoods are located on the South and West sides of Chicago where poverty, low educational attainment, and poor health outcomes including shorter life expectancy are concentrated. While Chicago’s homicide and shooting numbers have ebbed and flowed in recent years, since 2016, which was the year of the recent peak in Chicago homicides, they have consistently exceeded those of New York City and Los Angeles, two cities larger and more populous. Since January 1, 2016 through August 16, 2020, 2,978 people have been killed and there have been 12,387 non-fatal shooting victims, with 11 percent of them being young people under the age of 18. Although most of Chicago’s shootings and homicides happen in public places, domestic violence is also pervasive. In the United States, 25 percent of women will experience severe physical violence by an intimate partner during their lifetime and at least 35 percent of female homicides are perpetrated by intimate partners. Gun violence and domestic violence, while often treated as distinct, are very much related. Not only are some domestic violence incidents gun

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  violence and vice versa, but we also know that many communities and families experience both. Thus, the approaches to reducing gun violence and domestic violence must be coordinated to maximize impact.

Chicago: City of Chicago, 2020. 108p.

By Ames C. Grawert, Adureh Onyekwere, and Cameron Kimble

This report analyzes available crime data from police departments in the 30 largest U.S. cities. It finds that across the cities where data is available, the overall murder and crime rates are projected to decline in 2018, continuing similar decreases from the previous year.

New York: Brennan Center for Justice, 2019. 10p. 

By María Alejandra and Chávez Báez

This paper examines how trust in institutions and organizations are shaped according to age and exposure to violence during La Violencia. It also evaluates how people's actual trust on different groups (out-group trust) changes in municipalities that were exposed to violence in comparison to municipalities that were not exposed. From 1950's to the mid 1960's, Colombia experienced a period of intense civil wars and conflicts between social classes known as La Violencia. Using evidence on the index of violence built by Guzman et al. (2006) during this period and the Political Culture Survey of 2019, the main objective of this paper is to find whether people trust on State's institutions and people from different groups in municipalities that were mostly affected by violence. To complement the analysis, I analyzed press articles and news by the newspaper El Tiempo from 1950 to 1990 to find how is the perception of the State's legitimacy. After gathering information on 13,413 interviewees, I found that people who live during La Violencia trust less on government institutions and more on certain groups of people (neighbours). Moreover, people over 84 years-old living in municipalities that were exposed to La Violencia trust less on strangers and immigrants than younger people living in the same municipalities. These findings are supported in two mechanisms: deficient government-citizens relationship over time and risk aversion. That is, people who live in municipalities affected by violence during the bipartisan conflict are more risk averse and therefore show less trust on different groups of people.

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  The revision of press articles suggest that there is a tendency of mistrust on State's actions, at least among highly educated individuals.

Bogotá: Universidad de los Andes, 2021. 53p.

By Amanda Ward, Christopher Donner, David Olson, Alexandre Tham and Kaitlyn Faust

To address escalating street and gun-violence in Rockford, Illinois, Winnebago County’s Criminal Justice Coordinating Council piloted the Focused Deterrence Intervention (FDI) between January of 2018 and November of 2019. The intervention utilized a “focused deterrence” or “pulling-levers” framework to identify and deter members of the community who are at a heightened risk of committing future acts of street and gun violence. Loyola University Chicago’s Center for Criminal Justice Research, Policy and Practice collaborated with Winnebago County’s Criminal Justice Coordinating Council to support the development, implementation and evaluation of the Focused Deterrence Intervention. The present report reviews FDI’s pilot years, with a focus on evaluating FDI processes key to the program design.

Chicago: Center for Criminal Justice Research, Policy & Practice, Loyola University Chicago, 2020. 50p.

By Alfonso Valenzuela Aguilera

Crime exhibits specific geographical and chronological patterns in Latin American cities, and data on criminal activity allows scholars to trace spatial and chronological patterns down to specific neighborhoods and certain hours of the day in these cities. Over the last three decades, numerous studies have explored the relationship between crime, space, and time, and some studies have even established strong correlations between different patterns of land use and specific types of crimes. Few of these studies, however, have focused on the spatial configurations of criminal activity in cities and the conditions that elicit criminal activity in certain locations. Using recent crime data for Mexico City, this study employs a methodology based on crime location quotients to establish correlations that spatially characterize crime. This information can substantially improve public safety policies applied to urban contexts.

Houston, TX: Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, 2020. 25p.

By Ahmad Ilderim Tokey

Objectives: This study expands the literature by finding the associations of land use (LU) and road-related Built Environment with property and violent crime in Detroit from 2019-to 2021 and documenting if the relationships have changed during COVID-19. Method: This study uses property and violent crime location data from 2019 to 2021. It then builds Geographically Weighted Regression and Spatial Error Models to formalize the BE-crime relationship. Results: Findings indicate that multifamily LU and liquor stores are related to property crime but not much to violent crime. The retail and office LU proportion, bus stop density, and density of roads less than 40 miles per hour are positively linked with crime rates. Reversely, block groups' median income, population density, and tenure length are inversely associated with crime rates. The local association over the year is consistent for property crime but varied substantially for violent crime. In the low-income neighborhoods, single-family got more associated with violent crime during the pandemic while in a high-income neighborhood, single-family LU revealed a negative association with violent crime. Further, areas, where retail LU had a strong positive relationship with violent crime rates in 2019, attracted more crime afterward. The high bus stop densities downtown got more positively associated with violent crime in 2020-21 than in pre-pandemic time. Conclusion: This study advances understanding related to the BE-crime relationship, sheds new light on street-related BE, and documents the links between BE and crime. For local

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  policymakers in Detroit, this study leaves essential evidence that can help them make an informed move in the later stages of COVID-19.

Columbus, OH: Ohio State University, Department of Geography, 2022. 38p.

By Trine Syvertsen

‘Trine Syvertsen takes us on a historical journey through the underexplored history of how people and societies have been resisting media, from protesting and criticizing to outright rejecting them. The book is well-researched, insightful and, most of all, refreshing as it inspires readers to look and think beyond the more obvious and well-trodden paths when studying media.’

Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. 154p.