By Jai Gupta

This article aims to explore the relationship between weather and crime by answering the question: To what extent does the weather in cities with varying year-round temperatures have different relationships with both property and violent crime? The current literature has found a significant correlation between the increase in outside temperature with the increase in crime. However, this relationship has not been compared between warm and cold cities with relatively similar city variables, such as demographics, poverty rates, and others. The researcher performed a quantitative, correlational, ex post facto study to address this gap in the literature. The researcher examined three weather variables: average average temperature, average high temperature, and average low temperature across six cities. These six cities were split into three pairs, each pair having a warm and cold city. The researcher found four principle findings: cities with colder year-round temperatures had a more significant correlation between weather and crime; of the weather variables examined, the average low temperature had the strongest relationship with crimes across all cities; between violent and property crime, property crime had a stronger correlation with all weather variables on average; and lastly, as temperature increases across all weather variables, crime, on average, also increased. While more research should be conducted, these findings hope to serve local policy makers and law enforcement on better predicting crime.

Unpublished paper,  (April 30, 2024).

By Alana Cook

As with many property crimes, incidents of retail theft fell significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since October 2021, however, retail theft offences have been steadily increasing, up 47.5% year-on-year to June 2023. This paper considers the increase in retail theft up to June 2023 focusing on the regions where retail theft is increasing, what items is being stolen and from where, and who appears to be responsible. Findings show: • The sharp increase in retail theft following the removal of pandemic related restrictions has brought retail theft volumes back to equivalence with pre-pandemic figures in both Greater Sydney and Regional NSW. The absence of an increase in theft reports beyond what was reported prior to the pandemic suggests the upward trend reflects a return to pre-pandemic offending levels. The trend does not support emerging external factors, such as the cost-of-living crisis, driving an increase in this offence. • The most frequently reported stolen item in retail theft is liquor, including bourbon, whiskey, and vodka (stolen in 37% of incidents), followed by clothing (22%). Retail theft of personal items, such as perfume and cosmetics, has declined in the past five years (stolen in 13% of incidents). • Locations recording the biggest increase in steal from retail incidents over the past five years are licenced premises and general wholesalers. Department or clothing stores and chemists have reported the largest decreases. • $440 was the average value of items stolen in retail theft incidents in 2022/23. • Almost half of all retail theft offenders are aged 30 to 39 years but after accounting for population, young people aged 14 to 17 years had the highest rate of involvement with NSW Police.

(Bureau Brief No. 168). 

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research 2023. 10p.

By Michael J. Frith  , Kate J. Bowers  , Shane D. Johnson 

Introduction: In response to COVID-19, governments imposed various restrictions on movement and activities. According to the routine activity perspective, these should alter where crime occurs. For burglary, greater household occupancy should increase guardianship against residential burglaries, particularly during the day considering factors such as working from home. Conversely, there should be less eyes on the street to protect against non-residential burglaries. Methods: In this paper, we test these expectations using a spatio-temporal model with crime and Google Community Mobility data. Results: As expected, burglary declined during the pandemic and restrictions. Different types of burglary were, however, affected differently but largely consistent with theoretical expectation. Residential and attempted residential burglaries both decreased significantly. This was particularly the case during the day for completed residential burglaries. Moreover, while changes were coincident with the timing and relaxation of restrictions, they were better explained by fluctuations in household occupancy. However, while there were significant decreases in non-residential and attempted non-residential burglary, these did not appear to be related to changes to activity patterns, but rather the lockdown phase. Conclusions: From a theoretical perspective, the results generally provide further support for routine activity perspective. From a practical perspective, they suggest considerations for anticipating future burglary trends 

Journal of Criminal Justice, v. 82, 2022

By Shannon Brennan and Benjamin Mazowita

 Between 2011 and 2016, 2,362 people in British Columbia had a fatal overdose from illicit drugs, with 332 occurring in Surrey specifically. The majority of individuals who died of an illicit drug overdose in British Columbia (66%) and specifically in the City of Surrey (64%) had no contact with police in the 24 months preceding their overdose death. For the purposes of this study, a contact with the police is defined as an official intervention, where the individual was identified by police as a person accused of a criminal incident.  Overall, most of the decedents (66%) held some form of employment in at least one of the five years preceding their overdose death, regardless of any contact with police. That said, decedents who had a formal contact with the police were less likely to have experienced consistent employment over the 5 years. One in five (20%) decedents who had contact with police were employed in each of the 5 years prior to their fatal overdose, compared to 29% of decedents who did not have contact.  More than two-thirds (68%) of decedents who had contact with police had also received social assistance benefits in the 5 years prior to their death, a proportion that was significantly higher than their counterparts who had no contact with police (55%).  In general, most decedents were not hospitalized in the year before their death. This held true for both those who had contact with police (72%) and those who did not (75%). The remaining one in four decedents were hospitalized at least once in the year preceding their death. The most common reasons for hospitalization among decedents in the year before their death besides opioid poisonings were in connection to substance use related disorders and mental health conditions.  While the majority of decedents never came into contact with police, among those who did (34%), many did so multiple times. Overall, 15% of decedents in British Columbia and 16% of decedents in the City of Surrey had three or more formal contacts with police in the 24 months preceding their overdose death.  Overall, among decedents who had a contact with police, 33% in British Columbia (and 24% in the City of Surrey) had a fatal overdose in the 90 days following their last contact with police. These findings indicate the need for timely interventions.  The majority of decedents who came into contact with police prior to their fatal overdose did so for a non-violent crime: 83% of police contacts were for non-violent offences whereas the remaining 17% involved violent offences. Shoplifting of items valued at $5,000 or under was the most common reason decedents came into contact with police in the 24 months prior to their death. Aside from property offences and, more specifically, shoplifting, offences against the administration of justice were also among the most common reasons decedents came into contact with police. These offences were also highly represented among the decedent cohort, relative to the province as a whole.  In line with their police interactions, most of the decedents who appeared in a criminal court within the 2 years preceding their overdose death did so in relation to property offences and offences against the administration of justice. Specifically, cases involving theft, breach of probation and failure to comply with an order were among the most prevalent

Ottawa: Statistics Canada, 2019. 18p.

By Ahmad Ilderim Tokey

Objectives: This study expands the literature by finding the associations of land use (LU) and road-related Built Environment with property and violent crime in Detroit from 2019-to 2021 and documenting if the relationships have changed during COVID-19. Method: This study uses property and violent crime location data from 2019 to 2021. It then builds Geographically Weighted Regression and Spatial Error Models to formalize the BE-crime relationship. Results: Findings indicate that multifamily LU and liquor stores are related to property crime but not much to violent crime. The retail and office LU proportion, bus stop density, and density of roads less than 40 miles per hour are positively linked with crime rates. Reversely, block groups' median income, population density, and tenure length are inversely associated with crime rates. The local association over the year is consistent for property crime but varied substantially for violent crime. In the low-income neighborhoods, single-family got more associated with violent crime during the pandemic while in a high-income neighborhood, single-family LU revealed a negative association with violent crime. Further, areas, where retail LU had a strong positive relationship with violent crime rates in 2019, attracted more crime afterward. The high bus stop densities downtown got more positively associated with violent crime in 2020-21 than in pre-pandemic time. Conclusion: This study advances understanding related to the BE-crime relationship, sheds new light on street-related BE, and documents the links between BE and crime. For local

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  policymakers in Detroit, this study leaves essential evidence that can help them make an informed move in the later stages of COVID-19.

Columbus, OH: Ohio State University, Department of Geography, 2022. 38p.