Monica Schoch-Spana, Sanjana Ravi, AIshwarya Nagar, Christina Potter, and Tyrone Peterson

The Pandemic Recovery Metrics to Drive Equity – PanREMEDY project sought to give form to the least considered phase of a catastrophic outbreak of infectious disease, while applying an equity lens. The project inquired, “By what measures could local and state decision-makers know that efforts at holistic recovery were working, especially for the socially vulnerable individuals and communities hit hardest by COVID-19?”

To answer this question, the project team gathered and analyzed a wide range of evidence. They consulted disaster recovery and resilience experts, convened a scoping symposium, reviewed academic and gray literature on epidemic/pandemic recovery, and elicited input from diverse participants via listening sessions. Based upon thematic analyses of these inputs, the team generated an initial set of 44 indicators and distilled ethical and practical considerations concerning their implementation.

The PanREMEDY indicators were ordered into 2 categories—recovery system organization and operations and system outcomes, the latter of which could be thought of as community status:

Organization and Operations

• Governance and Leadership: political authority, collective action, financing structures, public face

• Planning: guiding framework, time horizons, technical expertise, aligned futures

• Data Management: actionable data, disaggregated data, extant data, community contextualization

• Public Involvement: representative bodies, feedback loops, community dashboards

Outcomes

• Human Health: epidemiological curve, disrupted care, disease sequelae, healthcare infrastructure, health insurance

• Human Development: healthy housing, adequate nutrition, safety/security, educational attainment, connectivity/mobility

• Economic Vitality: earning power, entrepreneurship, work protections, neighborhood pulse, thriving grassroots

• Political Integrity: power-sharing, equity structures, safety net, public trust, inventive policy

• Social Fabric: connectedness, collective impact, stigma repair, caretaking

• Emotional Wellbeing: truth-telling, public memorialization, psychological supports, self-medication, relief/resolution

Subsequently, a panel of practitioners, community advocates, subject matter experts, and local government leaders rated the indicators according to importance (ie, salience to holistic recovery) and feasibility (ie, ease of application).

Developed in the COVID-19 context, the PanREMEDY project’s findings can prompt further learning and actions specific to that pandemic. At the same time, the findings offer a more general framework with which to prepare communities for future pandemics. End-users are encouraged to tailor the indicators to their context, including local values, programmatic priorities, and political environments.

With the PanREMEDY indicators in hand, state and local leaders and other community members can better assess how well their jurisdictions are:

• Rebounding from the worst effects of the COVID-19 pandemic

• Targeting support to COVID-19 survivors who still need help

• Engaging in pre-event planning for future post-pandemic recovery

• Strengthening resilience to the increasing likelihood of future pandemics

• Motivating non-traditional partners to join in pandemic preparedness efforts.

Baltimore MD: Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security; 2024.

By Marcus Felson, Shanhe Jiang and Yanqing Xu

The spread of the coronavirus has led to containment policies in many places, with concomitant shifts in routine activities. Major declines in crime have been reported as a result. However, those declines depend on crime type and may difer by parts of a city and land uses. This paper examines burglary in Detroit, Michigan during the month of March, 2020, a period of considerable change in routine activities. We examine 879 block groups, separating those dominated by residential land use from those with more mixed land use. We divide the month into three periods: pre-containment, transition period, and post-containment. Burglaries increase in block groups with mixed land use, but not blocks dominated by residential land use. The impact of containment policies on burglary clarifies after taking land use into account.

Crime Science 2020 9:10

By Jason L. Payne , Anthony Morgan and Alex R. Piquero

Confronted by rapidly growing infection rates, hospitalizations and deaths, governments around the world have introduced stringent containment measures to help reduce the spread of COVID-19. This public health response has had an unprecedented impact on people’s daily lives which, unsurprisingly, has also had widely observed implications in terms of crime and public safety. Drawing upon theories from environmental criminology, this study examines officially recorded property crime rates between March and June 2020 as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute 6-month-ahead forecasts of property damage, shop theft, residential burglary, fraud, and motor vehicle theft rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March through to June. We conclude that, with the exception of fraud, all property offence categories declined significantly. For some offence types (shop stealing, other theft offences, and residential burglary), the decrease commenced as early as March. For other offence types, the decline was lagged and did not occur until April or May. Non-residential burglary was the only offence type to significantly increase, which it did in March, only to then decline significantly thereafter. These trends, while broadly consistent across the state’s 77 local government areas still varied in meaningful ways and we discuss possible explanations and implications.

Crime Science. (2021) 10:7 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-020-00136-3

By Maite Dewinter, Christophe Vandeviver, Philipp M. Dau, Tom Vander Beken and Frank Witlox

COVID-19 impacts the daily lives of millions of people. This radical change in our daily activities affected many aspects of life, but acted as well as a natural experiment for research into the spatial distribution of 911 calls. We analyse the impact of the COVID-19 measures on the spatial pattern of police interventions. Crime is not uniformly distributed across street segments, but how does COVID-19 affect these spatial patterns? To this end, Gini coefficients are calculated and a proportion difference spatial point pattern test is applied to compare the similarity of the patterns of incidents before, during, and after the first lockdown in Antwerp, Belgium. With only essential mobility being allowed, the emergency call pattern has not significantly changed before, during or after this lockdown, however, a qualitative shift in police officer's daily work may have had an effect on the daily operation of the Antwerp police force.

Crime Science 2021 10:20

By Jacek Koziarski

Drawing upon seven years of police calls for service data (2014–2020), this study examined the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on calls involving persons with perceived mental illness (PwPMI) using a Bayesian Structural Time Series. The findings revealed that PwPMI calls did not increase immediately after the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. Instead, a sustained increase in PwPMI calls was identified in August 2020 that later became statistically significant in October 2020. Ultimately, the analysis revealed a 22% increase in PwPMI calls during the COVID-19 pandemic than would have been expected had the pandemic not taken place. The delayed effect of the pandemic on such calls points to a need for policymakers to prioritize widely accessible mental health care that can be deployed early during public health emergencies thus potentially mitigating or eliminating the need for increased police intervention, as was the case here.

Crime Science 2021 10:22

By William A. Chernoff

Objective: The opportunity for web camera theft increased globally as institutions of higher education transitioned to remote learning during COVID-19. Given the thousands of cameras currently installed in classrooms, many with little protection, the present study tests the effectiveness of anti-theft signage for preventing camera theft. Methods: Examined web camera theft at a southern, public university located in the United States of America by randomly assigning N=104 classrooms to receive either anti-theft signage or no signage. Camera theft was analyzed using Blaker’s exact test. Results: Classrooms not receiving anti-theft signage (control) were 3.42 times more likely to exhibit web camera theft than classrooms receiving anti-theft signage (medium effect size). Conclusions: Using classrooms as the unit of analysis presents new opportunities for not only future crime prevention experiments, but also improving campus safety and security. Also, preventing web camera theft on campus is both fiscally and socially responsible, saving money and ensuring inclusivity for remote learners

Crime Science 2021 10:23

By Deepak Premkumar, Thomas Sloan, Magnus Lofstrom, and Joseph Hayes

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the criminal justice system was affected by public health measures such as the statewide shelter-in-place order, as well as state and local directives that altered interactions between law enforcement officers and the public, resulted in the early release of inmates, and modified bail procedures. This report takes a first step toward investigating California arrest trends during this period (through mid-2021). Like the rest of the nation, California experienced overall decreases in crime in 2020, likely due to fewer people leaving their homes, but there were increases in some crime categories, including homicides. The causes of the trends we have identified are hard to discern, given the highly unusual and challenging context of the pandemic.

Arrests began to fall precipitously in early March 2020, driven by reductions in misdemeanor arrests. Felony arrests briefly experienced significant declines but rose to around 10 percent below January 2020 levels by fall 2020. Though some COVID-related criminal justice policies and measures expired after a few months, California experienced persistent declines of 5 percent for felony arrests and 40 percent for misdemeanor arrests until at least July 2021—resulting in a rare near-convergence of these two arrest types. The reductions were largely among lower-level offenses related to drugs and driving.→

Californians staying home appeared to be a key driver of arrest trends during 2020, through reduced social interactions and police-public encounters. Changes in the number of people walking, driving, and using transit are consistent with initial decreases and subsequent rebounds in arrests during this period. The mobility-arrest relationship was not as close in 2021, when arrests did not fluctuate as much.→

In general, percent changes in arrests were similar across racial/ethnic groups. After the murder of George Floyd, there were 9 to 15 percent more misdemeanor arrests across all races compared to the preceding weeks. However, felony arrests of Black Californians spiked by 43 percent during this period—relative to increases of less than 10 percent for other races.→

Reductions in police stops and formal enforcement also contributed to declines in arrests. The state’s largest local law enforcement agencies made 35 percent fewer stops until at least the end of 2020. They also altered their handling of the stops they did make: officers were proportionally more likely to let people go without formal enforcement in the first few months of the pandemic, and later transitioned to citing and releasing stopped individuals in the field.→

Pandemic policies raised concerns about a “revolving door” effect—whereby people are repeatedly detained and released. Re-arrests as a proportion of arrests are a key indicator of this effect. In the months before COVID, about 40 percent of weekly arrests were re-arrests within a 90-day period; after holding steady during much of the pandemic, this share dropped sharply to 32 percent in June 2021. However, the felony re-arrest share increased from 29 percent to 32 percent before the June 2021 decline. Further study of re-arrests in relation to specific policies is warranted.→

Declines in arrests contributed to a 30 percent reduction in new admissions into jail and a 17 percent reduction in the jail population that persisted until at least December 2021. While it is clear that multiple factors contributed to a sustained decline in bookings and jail populations, the impact of any one policy is difficult to quantify.

San Francisco: Public Policy Institute of California, 2023. 35p→

By Susan McVie*, Kath Murray, Victoria Gorton, Ben Matthews

This report examines data on Fixed Penalty Notices (FPNs) issued in England and Wales under the Coronavirus Regulations between 27 March 2020 and 31 May 2021 in relation to illegal travel and movement, social gatherings, and failure to follow instructions. It focuses on who received fines, where and why they were issued, and how patterns of usage varied over time as the restrictions changed. It also examines how policing changed over time, looking at three distinct time-periods defined by patterns of enforcement during the pandemic and related policy and legislative change. Overall, the analysis in this report provides valuable insights into the profile and patterning of police enforcement during one of the most tumultuous periods in recent history. The report was commissioned by the National Police Chiefs’ Council (NPCC) as part of its commitment to openness

Edinburgh: University of Edinburgh, Law School, 2023. 104p.

By The National Police Foundation

The last few years have presented unprecedented challenges, both to our communities and to public safety officers and first responders—especially law enforcement. Current events, including COVID 19, political rhetoric and chaos, societal conflict and division, and attacks on the policing institution, individual officers, and officers’ families, have created a challenging environment where stress and trauma increased exponentially. High-stress police operations such as crowd management during periods of civil unrest is mentally and physically demanding. Crowd management often challenges officers to push their bodies beyond normal limits, leading to poor performance, fatigue, insomnia, and injury. In the summer of 2020, many officers repeatedly worked shifts that, at times, exceeded 12 hours, for 10 to 12 days straight, leaving little time for appropriate nutrition, rest, exercise, recovery, or sleep. Large numbers of arrests, long periods on bicycles, standing or moving in formations, or responding to threats are physically and mentally demanding. In light of the current environment, NPF has developed this brief guide for law enforcement agencies on ways to recognize and protect the physical and mental wellbeing of officers during responses to intense and protracted protests and demonstrations. Both physical and mental stressors are taking a toll on the women and men who have dedicated their lives to protecting our communities. This guidebook offers educational information and practical considerations for sworn officers of all ranks, particularly frontline…..

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  officers and mid-level supervisors, as well as their families, to better protect officers’ mental and physical wellbeing during times of heightened stress. Furthermore, this guidebook can be used as a resource by police leaders in promoting healthy organizational cultures that recognize and prioritize officer safety and wellness as an integral part of policing protests—which ultimately can help foster better outcomes for all involved. The content in this guidebook has been curated and derived from a review of research from professional medical organizations and has been peer reviewed by licensed mental health clinicians and law enforcement practitioners.   

Arlington, VA: National Police Foundation, 2021. 47p.