By Jai Gupta

This article aims to explore the relationship between weather and crime by answering the question: To what extent does the weather in cities with varying year-round temperatures have different relationships with both property and violent crime? The current literature has found a significant correlation between the increase in outside temperature with the increase in crime. However, this relationship has not been compared between warm and cold cities with relatively similar city variables, such as demographics, poverty rates, and others. The researcher performed a quantitative, correlational, ex post facto study to address this gap in the literature. The researcher examined three weather variables: average average temperature, average high temperature, and average low temperature across six cities. These six cities were split into three pairs, each pair having a warm and cold city. The researcher found four principle findings: cities with colder year-round temperatures had a more significant correlation between weather and crime; of the weather variables examined, the average low temperature had the strongest relationship with crimes across all cities; between violent and property crime, property crime had a stronger correlation with all weather variables on average; and lastly, as temperature increases across all weather variables, crime, on average, also increased. While more research should be conducted, these findings hope to serve local policy makers and law enforcement on better predicting crime.

Unpublished paper,  (April 30, 2024).

By  Aika Hui , Paul Salkovskis, Joshua Rumble-Browne

The current systematic review aimed to critically examine the growing body of literature proposing that there is an ‘intergenerational cycle’ of violence, whereby victims of abuse during childhood are posited to have a higher propensity of becoming perpetrators during adulthood. Specifically, this review examined whether there is quality evidence supporting the relationship between childhood sexual abuse victimisation and interpersonal violence perpetration (sexual/physical) in adult men. 20 studies published between 1992 and 2022 were included in this review. The quality of studies was systematically assessed to provide a weighted conclusion to the primary research question. Overall, there was limited evidence to confidently support or reject the link between childhood sexual abuse and physical and/or sexual violence in adulthood for men. The current review found that whilst there were studies that found associations on a univariate and multivariate level between childhood sexual abuse and interpersonal violence in adult men, only 25 % of the papers included in this review were deemed high-quality and significant methodological issues limit the validity of conclusions made. Addi tionally, a sizeable proportion of high-quality studies at both univariate and multivariate levels of analysis suggest mixed results or did not find a significant relationship. Implications for future research studies in this area in terms of the encouragement of a more critical stance towards the assumption of ‘intergenerational cycles’ of violence as well as recommendations for methodological improvements of studies were discussed.  

Aggression and Violent Behavior Volume 78, September–October 2024, 101928

By Brandon C. Welsh , Steven N. Zane ,Daniel P. Mears 

The present state of calls for and efforts to implement evidence-based policy provide a powerful foundation for propelling a movement toward bringing about rational, cost-efficient, and humane policies for reducing aggression, crime, and violence. The main aim of this article is to report on new developments in evidence-based policy (EBP)—what we view as giving rise to a new era in crime and violence prevention and social justice. The article describes major advances, both in research and policy, and discusses pressing challenges that confront EBP in crime/violence and justice, drawing on key findings from a new, comprehensive book project. The overall conclusion of the findings is heartening and yet sobering. Research and policy have made substantial progress, but there is much more to be done. The specific details of this work are organized around three questions that are foundational to evidence-based crime/violence and justice policy today: (a) How is research contributing to and guiding EBP? (b) What are productive and new ways to think about EBP? and (c) What are strategies for pro moting greater use of EBP?    

Aggression and Violent Behavior Volume 77, July–August 2024, 101940

By David Weisburd, Taryn Zastrow  , Kiseong Kuen  , Martin A. Andresen

Our paper reports on a systematic review of crime concentration studies over the last 35 years. We identify 47 papers that report on crime concentrations at a micro geographic unit of analysis. These papers produced 49 estimates of general crime concentration for crime incidents at streets segments for a specific cumulative proportion of crime. The median concentration for these estimates is 50 % of crime found at 4.5 % of streets, and 25 % of crime at 1.25 % of streets. The bandwidth for 50 % crime concentration is 9.3 % (1.7–11.0 %), and for 25 % crime concentration 3.0 % (0.4–3.4 %). Using the interquartile range to exclude outliers, we found a bandwidth of 2.5 % (3.2–5.7 %) for 50 % of crime, and 1.4 % (0.8–2.2 %) for 25 % of crime. Crime concentration was generally stronger for specific types of crime, and bandwidths of concentration were generally smaller. Using alternative measures of crime and different micro geographies produces similar conclusions regarding strong crime concentration at place with narrow bandwidths. Our review shows that a general framework of a law of crime concentration applies across a large number of cities across many regions around the world. 

Aggression and Violent Behavior Volume 78, September–October 2024, 101979

May Contain Markup

By Matthew Talbert & Jessica Wolfendale

Definition and Causes of War Crimes: The book explores what constitutes war crimes and critiques the situationist view, which attributes war crimes to external pressures like battlefield conditions and military culture.

Dispositional Account: The authors propose an alternative dispositional theory, emphasizing the role of individual character traits and moral agency in the commission of war crimes.

Moral Responsibility: The book argues against excusing perpetrators based on situational pressures, advocating for a theory of responsibility that considers the attitudes and beliefs expressed through their actions.

Prevention and Punishment: It discusses strategies for preventing war crimes, including better military ethics training and understanding the social and moral frameworks that lead to such crimes

Oxford University Press, 2018, 168 pages

By Alex Armand, Paul Atwell, Joseph Gomes, Giuseppe Musillo, Yannik Schenk

This paper investigates the role of mass media in shaping racial tolerance and advancing civil rights in the post-WWII United States. We study the first attempt in the history of mass media to use a radio broadcast targeted at children to promote an inclusive American society. In 1946, amid persistent racial divisions, the popular radio series The Adventures of Superman launched Operation Intolerance, a sequence of new episodes promoting equality, rejecting racial discrimination, and exposing the KKK's bigotry. Using digitized historical data on U.S. radio stations and state-of-the-art radio propagation models, we compute geographic exposure to the broadcasts. Exploiting exogenous exposure to the broadcasts, we employ a cohort study design to analyze individual-level data from 1964 to 1980–a crucial period for civil rights activism and legislation in the United States. We find lasting impacts on those exposed as children, including increased support for civil rights, improved interracial relations, and more progressive political attitudes. These effects translate into greater alignment with the Civil Rights Movement, evidenced by increased support for protests and diminished institutional trust, and further manifested by reduced participation in the Vietnam War. Additionally, county-level panel data illustrate how areas covered by the broadcast in 1946 evolve towards less segregationist attitudes, a lower presence of the KKK, and an increase in civil rights activism and prominence in discourse.

Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics, 2024.

By Institute for Strategic Dialogue

From mainstream to extreme, from far left to far right, and large platforms to fringe ecosystems, antisemitism on social media is a universal challenge. For many years and across different events, geographies, and languages, ISD has sought to understand, track, and analyze online antisemitism. This document aims to synthesize ISD’s findings, providing a summary of relevant literature as a tool for informing the work of ISD’s Coalition to Counter Online Antisemitism.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 17p.

By The  Institute for Strategic Dialogue

The rapidly evolving online extremist landscape in New Zealand means new strategies for intervention are needed. This playbook – developed in consultation with New Zealand’s rich tapestry of civil society, communities, and practitioners engaged in prevention – offers practical frameworks for projects promoting positive online interventions to tackle online extremism. Based on an analysis of the rapidly evolving landscape of online extremism, the playbook takes stock of established and emerging intervention models. It brings together domestic and international best practices and suggests potential avenues for new positive intervention approaches. Finally, it reflects on practical considerations for programming, including monitoring and evaluation, safeguarding, operational security, and ethical considerations. This playbook examines the shift from violent groups to online extremism, highlighting digital literacy, audience communication, and proactive engagement with at-risk individuals.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 37p.

By Paul M. Reeping & David Hemenway 

Background: Previous studies have linked weather to crime and aggression but have not considered the causal structure of the variables included in the model(s).

Methods: This cross-sectional study used data from 2012 to 2016 to measure the association between weather and the number of shootings in Chicago. The number of shootings per day was obtained via the Chicago Tribune (2012–2016). Daily high temperature, humidity, wind speed, difference in temperature from historical average, precipitation type, and amount, were extracted via The Weather Underground. Weekends, holidays, and other non-school days were also included as possible effect measure modifiers. Causally adjusted negative binomial regressions were used to evaluate the associations between the exposures of interest and the daily number of shootings.

Results: A 10-degree (°C) higher temperature was significantly associated with 34% more shootings on weekdays and 42% more shootings on weekends or holidays. A 10-degree higher temperature than average was also associated with a 33.8% higher rate of shootings.

Conclusion: In recent years, shootings in Chicago were more likely to happen on warm days and especially during the weekends or holidays. This finding is in line with studies that have linked crime to higher temperatures and also suggests that shootings may be related to when individuals are outside and more likely to encounter violence. Interventions that keep people inside, such as air-conditioning and summer programs for students, might be effective in reducing the number of shootings in Chicago. We believe using a causal structure is useful for understanding the link between weather and shootings.

Injury Epidemiology volume 7, Article number: 31 (2020) 

By Kondakov, Alexander Sasha

Violent Affections uncovers techniques of power that work to translate emotions into violence against queer people. Based on an analysis of over 300 criminal cases of anti-queer violence in Russia before and after the introduction of the ‘gay propaganda’ law, the book shows how violent acts are framed in emotional language by perpetrators during their criminal trials. It then utilizes an original methodology of studying ‘legal memes’ and argues that these individual affective states are directly connected to the political violence aimed at queer lives more generally. The main aim of Violent Affections is to explore the social mechanisms and techniques that impact anti-queer violence evidenced in the reviewed cases. Alexander Sasha Kondakov expands upon two sets of interdisciplinary literature – queer theory and affect theory – in order to conceptualize what is referred to as neo-disciplinary power. Taking the empirical observations from Russia as a starting point, he develops an original explanation of how contemporary power relations are changing from those of late modernity as envisioned by Foucault’s Panopticon to neo-disciplinary power relations of a much more fragmented, fluid, and unstructured kind – the Memeticon. The book traces how exactly affections circulate from body to body as a kind of virus and eventually invade the body and respond with violence. This analytic effort draws on the arguments from memetics – the theory of how pieces of information pass on from one body to another as they thrive to survive by continuing to resonate. This work makes the argument truly interdisciplinary.

London: UCL Press, 2022.

Edited by Henrietta Wilson, Olamie Samuel, and Dan Plesch

How did a journalist find out who was responsible for bombing hospitals in Syria from his desk in New York? How can South Sudanese monitors safely track and detail the weapons in their communities and make sure that global audiences take notice? How do researchers in London coordinate worldwide work uncovering global corruption? What are policymakers, lawyers, and intelligence agencies doing to keep up with and make use of these activities? In the age of Google, threats to human security are being tracked in completely new ways. Human rights abuses, political violence, nuclear weapons, corruption, radicalization, and conflict are all being monitored, analyzed, and documented. Although open source investigations are neither easy to conduct nor straightforward to apply, with diligence and effort, societies, agencies, and individuals have the potential to use them to strengthen security. This interdisciplinary book presents 18 original chapters by prize-winning practitioners, experts, and rising stars, detailing what open source investigations are and how they are carried out, and examining the opportunities and challenges they present to global transparency, accountability, and justice. It is essential reading for current and future digital investigators, journalists, and scholars of global governance, international relations, and humanitarian law, as well as anyone interested in the possibilities and dangers of this new field.

Singapore: World Scientific Publishing Europe Ltd, 2024. 

By Asian Racing Federation

This Handbook highlights the risks to the integrity of horse racing and other sports from illegal betting-related sports corruption and provides practical guidance to administrators and other key stakeholders for mitigating against and combatting such corruption. Practical guidance in the Handbook includes an overview of major issues around illegal betting, how to conduct bet monitoring and betting analysis, intelligence gathering and analysis, how to conduct illegal betting investigations, and how to engage stakeholders to combat illegal betting and related corruption.

Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation, 2020. 130p.

By Australia. Parliament. Senate Legal and Constitutional Affairs References Committee

This inquiry was established to investigate the higher-than-population average statistics of missing and murdered First Nations women and children in Australia. The final report of the inquiry is organized by the following chapters.

Chapter 1 - Introduction
Chapter 2 - Current data
Chapter 3 - Causes of and factors driving violence
Chapter 4 - Police culture and practices
Chapter 5 - Acknowledging and responding to the crisis
Chapter 6 - Commonwealth government leadership
Chapter 7 - Conclusions and Recommendations

The report notes from the outset that every year, First Nations women and children are murdered or reported missing throughout Australia. The statistics are alarming and all Australians should rightly be concerned and outraged. It is important to remember that the statistics represent real people—sisters, mothers, aunties, grandmothers, children, grandchildren, siblings, and cousins—who were and continue to be loved. It is time to acknowledge and end the violence.

The report makes 10 recommendations including:

• that federal, state, and territory governments codesign with First Nations families and communities, and on behalf of all Australians, a culturally appropriate and nationally significant way in which to recognize and remember the First Nations women and children who have been murdered or disappeared.

• to review existing police practices in each jurisdiction, consider the learnings from each jurisdiction, and aim to implement and harmonize best police practices across Australia

• that the Australian government empowers First Nations women to lead the design and implementation of services and supports that address violence in their communities reflecting the principles contained in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous People.

• and further recommendations relating to: trauma-informed healing, including the recommendations made by the Healing Foundation and White Ribbon Australia; implementation of a violence prevention framework for men and boys; development of Aboriginal community-based support programs for men; and initiatives that promote a sense of individual and community responsibility for the issue of male violence against Aboriginal women.

Canberra: Australian Parliament, 2024.227p.

By Alex Armand, Paul Atwell, Joseph F. Gomes, Giuseppe Musillo, Yannik Schenk

We document the influence of media narratives in counteracting racial prejudice by exploring the emergence of socially inclusive narratives in post-WWII U.S. media. We exploit an unprecedented experiment that created exogenous exposure to these narratives: in 1946, amid widespread racial divisions, the popular children’s radio series The Adventures of Superman suddenly decided to promote equality by reframing its fictional stories. We find that exposure to these narratives significantly contributed to the advancement of civil rights in subsequent decades. Specifically, we uncover increased support for civil rights and civil rights organizations, deeper racial assimilation, and more progressive political positions.

Unpublished paper

By Michael T. Light

Leveraging the Computerized Criminal History System (CCH), which provides case processing information for all arrests recorded in Texas between 2011 and 2018, this study explores the relationship between unauthorized immigration, crime, and recidivism. The first section compares the criminality of undocumented immigrants to legal immigrants and native-born U.S. citizens between 2012 and 2018 in Texas. The second section establishes the foundational empirics for general criminological literature on the immigration-homicide nexus. Key findings include: 1) Immigrants generally exhibit lower rates of serious violent crime in California and Texas. This is true for overall rates of violence and homicide. 2) Violent crime rates among immigrants in California are lower than among immigrants in Texas, and the relative gap between native and foreign-born individuals is considerably larger in California. 3) In both states, there is substantial heterogeneity in the immigration-homicide relationship by race/ethnicity and national origin. Generally speaking, immigrants from Asian countries have especially low rates of homicide offending. 4) Relative to the U.S.-born population, the criminal histories of immigrants arrested for violent crimes are both less extensive and less severe. Section 3 answers important questions about the extent to which immigrant criminality changed during the Trump administration. The authors find no evidence, descriptive or otherwise, to suggest that the transition from the Obama administration to the Trump administration had a meaningful effect on immigrant criminality, whether measured as violence, property, drug, or traffic offenses. Section 4 examines recidivism among the undocumented population and details the data limitations that caution against strong conclusions on this issue. Most notably, criminal justice databases rarely have information as to whether the defendant was eventually deported. As a result, researchers do not know if an individual restrains from recidivating or is simply removed from the country and is thus no longer at risk of recidivating.

Madison WI: University of Wisconsin 2022. 79p.

By Astghik Mavisakalyan, Vladimir Otrachshenko, Olga Popova:

This paper examines the dynamic impact of natural disasters on the individual acceptance of a physical form of intimate partner violence (IPV). Based on a global sample of individual survey data and historical geo-referenced records of natural disasters at a subnational level, we show that natural disasters have long-lasting effects on IPV acceptance, increasing it in the short- (0-4 years) and medium- (10-14 years) run. Furthermore, heterogeneity analyses reveal that lower educated people are affected more relative to higher educated people, men are affected more than women, as are older cohorts relative to younger cohorts, while there are no differences between the effects of disasters on IPV attitudes of people with high and low income. Drawing on theories of IPV, we also uncover that likely mechanisms that may link disasters to the increased acceptance of IPV are psychological distress and economic insecurity fears.

IZA DP No. 17172 Bonn, Institute of Labor Economics, 2024.

By Alex Armand, Paul Atwell, Joseph Gomes, Giuseppe Musillo, Yannik Schenk

This paper investigates the role of mass media in shaping racial tolerance and advancing civil rights in the post-WWII United States. We study the first attempt in the history of mass media to use a radio broadcast targeted at children to promote an inclusive American society. In 1946, amid persistent racial divisions, the popular radio series The Adventures of Superman launched Operation Intolerance, a sequence of new episodes promoting equality, rejecting racial discrimination, and exposing the KKK's bigotry. Using digitized historical data on U.S. radio stations and state-of-the-art radio propagation models, we compute geographic exposure to the broadcasts. Exploiting exogenous exposure to the broadcasts, we employ a cohort study design to analyze individual-level data from 1964 to 1980–a crucial period for civil rights activism and legislation in the United States. We find lasting impacts on those exposed as children, including increased support for civil rights, improved interracial relations, and more progressive political attitudes. These effects translate into greater alignment with the Civil Rights Movement, evidenced by increased support for protests and diminished institutional trust, and further manifested by reduced participation in the Vietnam War. Additionally, county-level panel data illustrate how areas covered by the broadcast in 1946 evolve towards less segregationist attitudes, a lower presence of the KKK, and an increase in civil rights activism and prominence in discourse.

Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics, 2024.

By Institute for Strategic Dialogue

From mainstream to extreme, from far left to far right, and large platforms to fringe ecosystems, antisemitism on social media is a universal challenge. For many years and across different events, geographies, and languages, ISD has sought to understand, track, and analyze online antisemitism. This document aims to synthesize ISD’s findings, providing a summary of relevant literature as a tool for informing the work of ISD’s Coalition to Counter Online Antisemitism.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 17p.

By The Institute for Strategic Dialogue

In the last year, a loose network of actors from Bordeaux to Toulouse to Paris targeted drag events aimed at all-ages audiences for protest, harassment, and abuse. The behaviors and dynamics observed among these actors echo and mirror those observed in other parts of the world, particularly the US. While anti-drag action in France remains marginal compared to the activity witnessed in the US, UK, and Australia, it nonetheless emerged as a phenomenon from a standing start in 2022. March 2023 saw the nation’s first in-person protest at an all-ages drag event in Paris, and two months later a far-right group protested with banners and a smoke bomb outside of a library hosting a drag queen story hour (DQSH) for children in the small village of Saint-Senoux. A seemingly unlikely group of actors is leading this charge. The French anti-gender movement, which was at the heart of the movement against equal marriage in the early 2010s, has been joined by far-right parties and politicians, extremist groups, COVID-19 skeptics, and assorted conspiracy theorists. All are seeking to cancel drag events through tactics of protest, petitions, harassment, misinformation, and intimidation. This briefing provides an in-depth analysis of five cases of anti-drug mobilization in the period December 2022 – May 2023, using a combination of ethnographic methods and social media data analysis to examine activity related to each case. The first was in Bordeaux, the second in Lamballe-Armor, the third in Toulouse, the fourth in Paris, and the fifth in Saint-Senoux. While the earlier campaigns largely manifested online with limited in-person mobilization, the two most recent events saw increased offline activity. This report aims to summarise the key narratives, tactics, and actors involved in anti-drag action in France, and how these mobilizations are tied to anti-LGBTQ+ activity in France more broadly. However, given the small number of instances of anti-drug activism in France, the conclusions of this report are indicative and tentative.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 24p.

By The  Institute for Strategic Dialogue

The rapidly evolving online extremist landscape in New Zealand means new strategies for intervention are needed. This playbook – developed in consultation with New Zealand’s rich tapestry of civil society, communities, and practitioners engaged in prevention – offers practical frameworks for projects promoting positive online interventions to tackle online extremism. Based on an analysis of the rapidly evolving landscape of online extremism, the playbook takes stock of established and emerging intervention models. It brings together domestic and international best practices and suggests potential avenues for new positive intervention approaches. Finally, it reflects on practical considerations for programming, including monitoring and evaluation, safeguarding, operational security, and ethical considerations. This playbook examines the shift from violent groups to online extremism, highlighting digital literacy, audience communication, and proactive engagement with at-risk individuals.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 37p.