By Paul Pazen, Thomas Young, DJ Summers and Cooper Pollard

Colorado’s crime rate is not back to its pre-pandemic level. Both local and state authorities are currently attempting to find policy solutions.

Some localities have created policies and procedures that go beyond state guidelines in an effort to control crime. The City of Aurora implemented mandatory minimum sentencing guidelines for auto theft in 2022, for example, the year that Colorado’s and Aurora’s auto theft rates were highest. This policy led to a decrease in the auto theft rate in the city beyond what was seen statewide. In 2023, state lawmakers tried to address auto theft with passage of SB23-097. This bill did not implement mandatory minimum sentences, but instead made it a felony to commit auto theft regardless of the value of the vehicle. The law went into effect on July 1, 2023.

Using Aurora’s experience as a guide, CSI attempted to assess what the economic savings would be if the state were to experience the same decrease in auto theft, shoplifting, and overall crime that Aurora did after implementing its ordinance.

Key Findings

The share of auto theft in Aurora was 19% in July 2022. Since the passage of Aurora’s ordinance, known as “Mandatory Minimum Sentences for Motor Vehicle Theft,” the share averaged 16% from August 2022 through December 2024, representing a three percentage point decrease from the pre-August 2022 period.

A market model predicting auto theft in Aurora suggests there were 723 fewer auto thefts in Aurora from August 2022 to December 2024, a 6% decline relative to other large cities in the state.

For automobile crime, a 6% decline equates to $16.3 million in economic savings for Aurora from August 2022 through December 2024. For the largest city in the state, Denver, the economic savings would be $37.3 million over the same 29 months.

In contrast to Aurora’s experience, initial model results on the state impact from its 2023 effort was less pronounced at a 3% reduction in auto theft.

If Aurora’s experience is indicative of the potential savings of a similar statewide approach to crime, a 6% decline in crime statewide for all reported criminal offenses would have equated to $1.8 billion in economic savings in 2024, or roughly $774 per Colorado household.

Changes in local crime are not uniform across the state, however. The change in crime over the past five years varies widely by city and county.

Greenwood Village, CO : Common Sense Institute, 2025, 18p

By Alana Cook

Over the past two decades, there has been a long-term decline in motor vehicle theft. Stolen vehicle numbers reached an historic low in September 2021 following two COVID-19 lockdowns, steadily increasing since then. In March 2023 the number of vehicles stolen in NSW was higher than any month in the previous six years and increased 21.3% year-on-year. This paper considers the increase in motor vehicle theft up to March 2023 focusing on where the increase is most pronounced, which vehicles are affected, and who appears to be responsible. Key features of the recent increase in incidents of motor vehicle theft include: • The increase in vehicle theft is not uniform across NSW. In a number of regional locations vehicle theft has shown strong growth and is now much higher than at any point in previous five years. This applies to New England and North-West, Richmond-Tweed, Far West and Orana, Mid North Coast, and Central West. In New England and North West, for instance, vehicle theft was 67% higher in the year to March 2023 compared with five years earlier and the number of vehicles stolen in March 2023 (n=91) was the highest since records began in 1995. • This contrasts with the pattern of vehicle theft in other parts of NSW, particularly Greater Sydney, where the volume of vehicles stolen still remains lower than prior to the pandemic. In these locations, increases seem to simply reflect recovery from the COVID-related crime fall. • Vehicles stolen in Regional NSW are more likely to be recovered than vehicles stolen in Greater Sydney. This suggests motor vehicle theft in regional locations may be more likely to be conducted opportunistically for joyriding and transport purposes. • Young people appear to be responsible for the increase in vehicle theft in Regional NSW with a 179% increase in legal actions against this group over the five years to March 2023. A significant, but smaller increase in young people proceeded against in Greater Sydney was also observed (up 52%). • Theft patterns vary by vehicle make and year of manufacture. In the year to March 2023: š The most frequently stolen vehicles were manufactured by Toyota, Holden, and Ford, all of which are very common vehicles. š The vehicle makes with the highest rate of theft were Holdens, Jeeps, and Land Rovers. š Common vehicle makes with the largest percentage increase in theft in the five years to March 2023 were Kias, Jeeps, Isuzus, Land Rovers, and Volkswagens. š Older vehicles are much more susceptible to theft than recent models. • The recent increase in vehicle theft is at least partially a bounce-back from the COVID-driven crime declines of 2020 and 2021 as pandemic restrictions eased. Another factor, however, particularly in certain regional communities, may be associated with reports of social media posts encouraging vehicle theft on the platform TikTok. 

(Bureau Brief No. 166). 

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research 2023. 11p