By Ariel White and Avery Nguyen 

Recent debates about enfranchising incarcerated people raise the question of how many additional votes such policies would generate. Existing research finds very low voter participation among people previously convicted of felonies, but it remains unclear how often people might vote from prison if given the opportunity. We use data from states that allow people to vote while incarcerated for felony crimes to address this question. We merge prison records with the voter file to estimate how many currently incarcerated people are registered and voted in recent elections. Estimates suggest very few (under one in ten) eligible incarcerated voters in Vermont and Maine voted in the most recent congressional election. Given the winning margins in other states’ recent elections, these estimates suggest that enfranchising currently-incarcerated people would likely not have changed these election outcomes. We conclude that debates about enfranchisement should focus on normative issues and not anticipated electoral effects.

Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2020.